These are the consequences for Russell should Hamilton go to Ferrari

On Thursday morning, rumours suggested Lewis Hamilton could switch to Ferrari for the 2025 Formula 1 season. This was further enhanced by suggestions that the Italian team had stopped negotiations with Carlos Sainz. Even though any potential move is 12 months away, if the rumours turn out to be true, this could have immediate consequences for George Russell.

The rumours, which Mercedes and Ferrari didn't wish to comment on when asked by GPblog, suggest that Hamilton has a deal at Mercedes for 2024 with an option to add another year in 2025. This means that Hamilton isn't tied down at Mercedes as securely as previously thought. The seven-time World Champion has been the clear leader at Mercedes since 2017, when Valtteri Bottas joined. Hamilton previously beat former teammate Nico Rosberg for the World Championship in 2014 and 2015, only to lose once in 2016.

Russell and Mercedes

Toto Wolff and Mercedes have always seen Russell as the successor to Hamilton. The 25-year-old Brit spent three seasons at Williams and impressed in an underperforming car. Once that deal ended, Mercedes had to decide between extending Bottas again or bringing the youngster in alongside Hamilton, who stated Bottas was his best teammate in F1.

Mercedes didn't feel like they could afford to let Russell wait any longer and signed him for the 2022 Formula 1 season. The new regulations marked a brand new era in F1. Mercedes missed the mark and haven't been able to regularly fight for wins since. Attention shifted to catching up with Ferrari and then Red Bull. In his first year at Mercedes, Russell won the Brazilian Grand Prix. He finished ahead of Hamilton in the World Championship by scoring 35 more points. 

In 2023, Russell's performance wasn't as consistent. Hamilton scored points at every single Grand Prix weekend, whereas Russell missed out on points at crucial times. The result? An eighth-place finish in the World Championship, behind fellow countryman Lando Norris, who scored just 12 points in the opening eight weekends. 

Consequences for Russell

It's worth remembering all of this is pure speculation until an announcement is made either way from the parties involved. During the 2023 season, rumours suggested a Ferrari move was on the cards until Hamilton himself shot the rumours down during the press conference for the Monaco Grand Prix. But rarely is there smoke without fire in F1, and that could've been an early spark.

If this move is announced at the end of this week, as the rumours suggest, then Hamilton will still have to wait another 12 months before he actually climbs into the Ferrari car. The same can be said about Sainz, who will still get another year in red alongside Charles Leclerc. Whilst Russell isn't moving, the consequences for him start immediately.

Mercedes will ask themselves this question: does it make sense to continue to push Hamilton as our leader when he leaves at the end of the current season? The answer doesn't have the same clarity as usual. They will, of course, get the best results for the constructors championship. When it comes to a situation where the drivers are close on track, or there's a situation which could boost Russell, surely they give out team orders to favour Russell. Why? To show Mercedes have confidence in their 2025 leader.

A new teammate

In all likelihood, it looks like Sainz could be heading to Mercedes for 2025. Perhaps not for the long term, depending on how interested Audi are. This will bring a fascinating duel and one that will put Russell under pressure. 

The Spanish driver is certainly no stranger to success. He was the only driver outside of Red Bull Racing to win a race in the 2023 Formula 1 season. Sainz beat Leclerc in the World Championship in his first year at Ferrari. Russell will have to show a lot more consistency to beat Sainz and showcase his talent.