In a sprint weekend, it is even more difficult to gather all the data, since the teams have just sixty minutes of practice time to nail down a baseline setup, run a qualifying simulation, and ideally also complete a long run. Many teams use very different run plans.

As usual, analysing long runs is partly guesswork, since we don’t know what engine modes and fuel loads are being used. A first outline, a rough building block, can still be created. Due to a setup risk, it’s questionable whether Red Bull even has a stable baseline.

The Austrian team’s long runs were therefore not exactly impressive. Data was collected for all drivers on the medium tyre. The Shanghai track is also evolving, so we must also consider when the long runs were completed during free practice.

Even so, it’s striking that Verstappen and Hadjar are about three to four seconds off. Is Red Bull stuck with this deficit? Possibly not, if they can still manage to improve the car’s driveability.

Verstappen started his long run a bit earlier than the Mercedes drivers, while George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, as in Australia, completed a longer and more stable long run. In terms of the stint average, the Mercedes drivers are incredibly closely matched, while the Red Bull drivers are well off the pace with averages of 1:39.669 and 1:40.562.

Charles Leclerc was the only one faster than the two Mercedes, but you can see he only drove three truly consistent laps. Ferrari did not record a full, robust long run that can be better compared to Russell’s and Antonelli’s. Lewis Hamilton also did not do a long run.

Oscar Piastri got close as well, but is about three to four tenths short. Teammate Lando Norris is further back again. McLaren likely gave each driver a different program, same for Red Bull.

Red Bull’s pace currently looks slower than that of the other top teams, but Liam Lawson’s long run was, notably, even faster than that of the parent team. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will finish ahead of Verstappen and Hadjar on Saturday and Sunday. In sprint qualifying, Lawson and teammate Arvid Lindblad were slower.

They will have to start the sprint race from P13 and P15. If the race pace is indeed faster than Red Bull’s, it could come in handy in the fight for points. A comparison of Verstappen, Hadjar, and Lawson in the table below:

Lawson completed a long run that was just as long as Verstappen’s. The Dutchman began his long run after about eight laps and a pit stop, while Lawson took more time for his qualifying simulation and only started his long run after twelve laps. That could mean Lawson had less fuel in the car when he began his race simulation, but as mentioned, that isn’t known.

Either way, Red Bull has work to do because Verstappen was not happy at all. Over the radio, he reported that it was ‘the worst Red Bull has ever experienced.’