Stopping power - those teams that could prevent Mercedes from winning the Canadian F1 GP

The short answer, based on pure pace, is not really. The longer answer is that the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve has a long history of turning expected results on its head come Sunday evening.

Mercedes' dominance in 2026 has been built on a power unit that appears superior in the new 50/50 hybrid era, combined with two drivers whose strengths complement each other and a team that has executed almost flawlessly in the pit lane. Antonelli, just 19 years old, has converted his first three career poles into victories - a feat no driver has ever achieved before. His teammate George Russell, who won in Canada in 2025, arrives desperate to reassert himself in what is quietly becoming a tense internal battle.

McLaren are the most credible threat on paper. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have the second-fastest car in the field on most weekends, and Montreal's long straights and heavy braking zones provide exactly the kind of overtaking opportunities that Norris thrives on. Their weakness has been execution; poor pit calls have cost them in recent races, and at a circuit where the safety car appears regularly and strategic windows open and close, that is a serious vulnerability.

Ferrari arrive in Montreal carrying the weight of expectation without yet having the results to match it. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have the experience and the raw talent to win on any given Sunday, and Ferrari are second in the Constructors' Championship. But they are still waiting for a genuine race win in 2026, and Montreal's demands of low downforce, energy management under the new regulations, braking precision do not play to their current car's strengths. Canada is the kind of race that could finally unlock them, or confirm the gap to the front is still too large.

Red Bull, meanwhile, are still finding their feet in 2026. Max Verstappen's best result this season is fifth place in Miami and reflective of a first-year power unit that is simply not competitive yet. At a circuit where Straight Mode top speeds will be decisive and energy deployment determines who can attack and who can only defend, the RB22's structural deficit is more exposed than anywhere else on the calendar.

The wildcard, as always at Montreal, is the weather. Rain reshuffles the competitive order, neutralises outright pace advantages and rewards the bravest drivers and most adaptable strategies. It is where Verstappen has historically been at his most dangerous, and where Mercedes' dominance becomes the least guaranteed.

If the race stays dry, it is difficult to see past Antonelli or Russell. If the clouds roll in off the St. Lawrence River, all bets are off. That is, and has always been, the joy of the Canadian Grand Prix.