F1 debut for Red Bull-target Dunne in '26 seems unlikely

Last week, Dunne and McLaren announced that they had parted ways with immediate effect. It’s widely expected that the 19-year-old will soon be unveiled as part of Red Bull’s driver development programme, something GPblog first reported several weeks ago. Should that happen, the plan is for Dunne to contest another season of Formula 2 in 2026, potentially complemented by a handful of Formula 1 free practice outings.

Despite that, Dunne’s name has begun circulating in connection with Racing Bulls, possibly as a full-time driver from 2026. However, GPblog understands this scenario is highly unlikely. Dunne currently lacks the necessary super licence, and earning it in the short term is unfeasible.

At present, the Irishman holds just nine points, a long way off the 40 needed. The points he gained from his 2022 Italian Formula 4 campaign are also set to expire after this season.

The most straightforward route for Dunne would be to finish in the top three of this year’s Formula 2 championship. With two race weekends remaining, he trails third-placed Luke Browning by 31 points. In theory, there's a chance, in practice, however, it's a long one at that.

Should Dunne finish fifth overall, he’d receive 20 points, bringing his total to 29, still well short. A fourth-place finish would earn him 30, leaving him one point shy of the required tally.

Red Bull could, in theory, offer Dunne a FP1 session to earn that final point. However, the final F2 standings won’t be confirmed until the closing Formula 1 weekend of the year.

It’s also possible Red Bull will look for an alternative solution over the winter. Earlier this year, Arvid Lindblad competed in New Zealand, where he earned the final points needed for his own licence. A similar route could be on the cards for Dunne.

Even so, appointing him to a Racing Bulls seat for 2026 would carry a considerable degree of risk. Unlike Lindblad’s case, there’s no guarantee the Irishman would manage to get his super licence in time.

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