The real reason behind MotoGP's rider market standstill

The majority of riders will be out of a contract by the end of 2026, leading to what is expected to be the most dramatic rider market shakeup for many years.

While there is still some uncertainty surrounding the future of Marc Marquez and Ducati, it seems almost certain that Pedro Acosta will replace Bagnaia at the factory team.

Marquez's signature is arguably the most important one in the MotoGP paddock, as should he decide to switch to any of the other teams it would be hard to imagine any of them turning him down.

However, it is not Marquez who has been keeping the rider market on hold as previously thought. Instead, the finalization of a new 'Concorde Agreement' between the manufacturers and the MotoGP Sports Entertainment Group is the real dam preventing a flood of rider transfers and signings.

The document deals primarily with the distribution of revenue to the respective MotoGP teams, so without a concrete guaruntee of future funding in the championship, the manufacturers will be hesistant to commit to any long-term future signings.

Nonetheless, it seems highly likely that Fabio Quartararo will depart Yamaha at the end of the year, with Jorge Martin believed to be the most likely replacement. Elsewhere, Bagnaia is set to make way for Acosta and join his fellow Italian Marco Bezzecchi at Aprilia.

Other rumours suggest that Gresini could be losing prodigious talent Fermin Aldeguer to VR45, while Alex Marquez looks set to switch to a factory ride at KTM.

It's not clear whether Gresini will remain with Ducati for 2027 and beyond. The same goes for Tech3 and Trackhouse Racing who could potentially switch to different factory providers.