Marc Marquez MotoGP title scenarios: How he can clinch in Portugal
Marquez doesn't need much to take the title in Portugal (Credit: Apex Agency)
Connor Andrews is Formula 1 and MotoGP writer for GPblog and various outlets. Having worked in motorsport for 15 years for leading companies, he has interviewed the sports biggest names and attended multiple Grands Prix.
Jorge Martin may be admirably fighting on against Marc Marquez, but the MotoGP championship fight will almost certainly be over in Portugal.
Marquez had his first match point at the Qatar Grand Prix, needing to outscore Martin substantially and Marco Bezzecchi less so.
He managed the latter task, virtually ending Bezzecchi’s championship after the pair collided.
However, Martin lived to fight another day, racing through a broken wrist to pick up 16 points in Lusail, earning plenty of praise from Marqeuz himself.
Yet the feat won’t do much in the long-term, with Marquez on the brink of a 10th title even if the injured Martin returns to winning ways at Portimao.
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There are now a maximum of 74 points left on the table, with Martin 60 behind Marquez’s 431, and his Aprilia teammate Bezzecchi 74 points behind.
The maths are pretty simple for ‘Bez’ who needs to pick up every single point on the table, and Marquez to take zero.
Then he would be tied on points, but beat Marquez via the countback of races won, as victories in Portugal and Valencia would put him on eight for the season, ahead of the Ducati rider’s seven.
The flipside is, Marquez needs just a single point from the 37 on offer in Portugal to send Bezzecchi packing.
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As for dismissing Martin to clinch the title, things are slightly more complicated, but not much.
How Marquez can win the MotoGP title in Saturday's Sprint
Given the 2024 champion has only one Grand Prix victory this season, Marquez needs to outscore him by two points in Saturday’s Sprint Race.
That would leave 62 points on the table for Sunday’s Portuguese Grand Prix and the Valencia weekend, but Martin 63 points behind.
The simplest way for Marquez to do so would be a Sprint victory, but the following scenarios would also get the job done:
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- Marquez 2nd, Martin 3rd
- Marquez 3rd, Martin 5th
- Marquez 4th, Martin 6th
- Marquez 5th, Martin 7th
- Marquez 6th, Martin 8th
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- Marquez 7th, Martin 9th
- Marquez 8th, Martin out of the points.
What Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi need to stay in contention
We won’t know the lay of the land for Sunday’s Grand Prix until the Sprint Race is over, but the task would be simple for Marquez - a 38 point lead over Bezzecchi and 37 points over Martin.
Bezzecchi will need every single point on offer, while Martin would need to outscore Marquez by 24 to keep the championship going into Valencia.
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