Three bold predictions for the second half of the 2026 F1 season

Who would have predicted before the season that Kimi Antonelli would dominate the opening half of the championship, leaving his teammate trailing in his wake? Or that Lewis Hamilton would head into the summer break comfortably ahead of Charles Leclerc after everything that happened last year? Or even that Max Verstappen would reach the halfway point of the season without a single victory?

Those are all scenarios that have become reality, highlighting once again how a new set of regulations can completely reshape the competitive order and produce outcomes few saw coming. With the championship set to resume at Zandvoort, attention now turns to what the second half of the season might have in store. Could the following three bold predictions come true, or are they simply a step too far?

The constructors' standings at the halfway point of the season make grim reading for Lawrence Stroll's team. Aston Martin has scored just a single point, courtesy of Fernando Alonso, leaving it second from bottom and ahead of only the newly introduced Cadillac.

However, the Hungarian Grand Prix offered Aston Martin its first real glimpse of progress this season. For the first time, both Alonso and Stroll were able to fight in the midfield, while the gap to the front was significantly reduced. That said, the Hungaroring is a circuit where engine performance plays a smaller role than at many other venues, something that may also have contributed to the team's improved competitiveness.

Even so, if the first upgraded power unit set to debut at Zandvoort delivers the expected gain in horsepower, Aston Martin could return from the summer break as a genuine contender for points on a consistent basis. The team will also be hoping that further upgrade packages over the remainder of the season can continue to move the car closer to the midfield fight.

As things stand, Aston Martin sits 65 points behind fifth-placed Racing Bulls in the constructors' championship. That is a considerable deficit for a team that has scored just a single point so far, but if there is one bold prediction worth making for the second half of the season, backing Aston Martin to mount a comeback may not be such a bad bet after all.

Mercedes has built a sizeable advantage in both the drivers' and constructors' championships, particularly thanks to Kimi Antonelli's outstanding form during the opening half of the season. Even so, the W17 has also shown signs of fragility at times, unlike Ferrari's SF-26, which has so far completed the campaign without suffering a single mechanical failure or reliability issue.

Ferrari also heads into the second half of the season with Lewis Hamilton rediscovering his best form. The seven-time world champion brings unrivalled experience when it comes to fighting for championships, something that could prove invaluable against Antonelli. While the Mercedes driver has been exceptional, he is still contesting his first title battle, and the pressure of a championship fight in the closing stages of the season could naturally become a significant factor.

The constructors' championship arguably represents the more realistic target, with Ferrari still chasing its first title since 2008. The team can rely on the consistency and reliability of the SF-26, which, while not always the fastest car on the grid, has repeatedly delivered solid results with both drivers.

Ferrari has also adopted the most aggressive development programme among the frontrunning teams, introducing upgrades at almost every Grand Prix so far this season. Mercedes, by contrast, has taken a more conservative approach, choosing to bring new parts less frequently.

It is a bold prediction, especially considering Verstappen himself said something similar around last year's summer break before going on to fight for the championship until the final race with a string of victories. This season, however, the RB22 has consistently looked a step behind both Mercedes and Ferrari, while Hungary also suggested that McLaren has made a significant leap forward.

As always, Verstappen has managed to extract more from the car than many thought possible, putting himself in contention on several occasions, most notably in Austria, and limiting the damage whenever opportunities arose. Even so, no driver, regardless of talent, can realistically expect to win consistently without having a car capable of matching the pace at the front.

Based on the competitive order so far, it is difficult to see Red Bull taking victories purely on performance. That does not mean Verstappen can be ruled out entirely, because if there is one driver capable of producing the unexpected, it is the Dutchman.