Verstappen’s title hopes: what needs to happen in the last seven races

With 69 points to make up over seven Grands Prix and three remaining sprint races, winning the title still represents a monumental challenge for Verstappen, but it’s no longer as impossible as it seemed before the Monza weekend.

To clinch his fifth world championship in Abu Dhabi, the Dutchman would essentially need to finish first in every remaining race, including the sprints. Paradoxically, Lando Norris could end up playing an inadvertent role in Verstappen’s title bid if he takes valuable points away from Oscar Piastri.

If Verstappen were to win all the remaining races, he would finish the season with 454 points. Piastri, to lose the championship at the final race, would need to finish third six times out of seven in the GPs, take second place in Abu Dhabi, and secure three second-place finishes in the remaining sprints in the USA, Brazil, and Qatar.

In this scenario, the Australian would end the championship with 453 points, losing by a single point to Verstappen.

In this combination, Norris would need to finish second in six of the seven races and could afford a third-place finish in Abu Dhabi, while also finishing third in all three remaining sprints.

The most striking case is the 2007 season, when Kimi Räikkönen in a Ferrari was third in the standings, 17 points behind rookie Lewis Hamilton and also behind Fernando Alonso, with just two races to go.

At that time, the old points system awarded a maximum of only ten points for a win. Räikkönen pulled off a historic comeback, winning the last two races while Hamilton faltered, making a surprising error in China by getting stuck at the pit entry and encountering technical problems in Brazil.

Räikkönen ultimately won the championship by a single point over Hamilton and Alonso, who finished level on points.

In 2010, the year Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull won their first world championship, the German started the final race in Abu Dhabi third in the standings, behind Fernando Alonso in a Ferrari and teammate Mark Webber.

On the eve of the race, Alonso led Webber by 8 points and Vettel by 15, and his strategy focused on keeping the Australian in check. However, Alonso got stuck behind Vitaly Petrov’s Renault and was unable to pass, remaining trapped in traffic until the checkered flag.

Vettel took full advantage, winning both the race and the championship, overtaking both rivals in the process.

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