Can Verstappen still win the title? The scenarios with three races left

The four-time world champion arrived in Interlagos at the start of the weekend hoping to close the gap to the championship leader, Lando Norris, who had taken the lead in Mexico in the previous round.

From the outset, however, the Dutchman struggled to unlock the RB21’s potential, finishing a forgettable fourth in the sprint and, more crucially, being knocked out in Q1 in qualifying with the sixteenth fastest time.

This prompted Red Bull to overhaul not just the car’s setup overnight but also to fit a new power unit in an attempt to mount a recovery from the pit lane — a gamble that paid off, with Verstappen ultimately climbing to third on the podium.

Nonetheless, Verstappen returns from Brazil having lost another 13 points to Norris, with 49 points still to make up over three races and one remaining sprint. His dream of becoming a five-time world champion in 2025 now faces a steep challenge.

For Verstappen to keep his hopes of clinching the world title in Abu Dhabi alive, he obviously needs to win every remaining race, but he also requires both McLaren drivers to falter significantly.

Norris would essentially need to score zero in Las Vegas, collect no more than six points in the Losail sprint, ten in the Qatar GP, and a second-place finish in Abu Dhabi as his best results to lose the championship.

Piastri, meanwhile, could finish no higher than second in Las Vegas, accumulate a maximum of 25 points between the sprint and race in Qatar, and take third in Abu Dhabi. If that scenario played out, all three drivers would end the season level on points, with Verstappen emerging as the champion.

The most striking case is the 2007 season, when Kimi Räikkönen in a Ferrari was third in the standings, 17 points behind rookie Lewis Hamilton and also behind Fernando Alonso, with just two races to go.

At that time, the old points system awarded a maximum of only ten points for a win. Räikkönen pulled off a historic comeback, winning the last two races while Hamilton faltered, making a surprising error in China by getting stuck at the pit entry and encountering technical problems in Brazil.

Räikkönen ultimately won the championship by a single point over Hamilton and Alonso, who finished level on points.

In 2010, the year Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull won their first world championship, the German started the final race in Abu Dhabi third in the standings, behind Fernando Alonso in a Ferrari and teammate Mark Webber.

On the eve of the race, Alonso led Webber by 8 points and Vettel by 15, and his strategy focused on keeping the Australian in check.

However, Alonso got stuck behind Vitaly Petrov’s Renault and was unable to pass, remaining trapped in traffic until the checkered flag. Vettel took full advantage, winning both the race and the championship, overtaking both rivals in the process.