Are Red Bull really the favourites or is there something else at play with Wolff's prediction

For the past 12 months, Mercedes had been labelled as the most-likely team to navigate the comprehesnive new 2026 rule changes successfully. It was understandable, the German team had come out strongest in 2014 when such a sweeping set of new rules last came into play.

Mercedes too have an experienced set up at the High Performance Powertrains (HPP) division in Brixworth in the UK, which makes the power units for currently customers, McLaren, Williams and Alpine.

Mercedes HHP have worked closely with the FIA during the design, build and development of this season's new power units and, as far as Wolff was concerned, any suspicious about the legality of his team's power unit were unfounded and disproven.

However, during the behind-closed-doors winter test in Barcelona, added weight was given to those early predictions, as Mercedes completed trouble-free running, racking up a huge number of laps, more than 500 completed in three days.

Yet the test in Barcelona was also the first chance for the teams to gauge each other’s status in the pecking order, and a remarkable dark horse emerged.

Red Bull Powertrains, under the new partnership with Ford, was the real success story of the test in Spain. Reliability and pace, when it had been largely expected that the new engine supply would initially struggle to match the same performance as their vastly-experienced rivals, Mercedes.

After all, Red Bull had significantly tempered expectations. Christian Horner and later Laurent Mekies both repeatedly stated that it would be a miracle if Red Bull’s first engine could be competitive right away. The fact that Red Bull was circulating fairly easily in Barcelona raised eyebrows.

Between the tests in Barcelona and Bahrain, there were media sessions with Williams, McLaren, and Mercedes - all three teams - who use Mercedes' HPP power units - were quick to draw attention to Red Bull's early success and that they had all been surprised.

Upon arriving in Bahrain, Toto Wolff went even further. Speaking to GPblog, the Mercedes team boss said that in the long runs Red Bull is a full second faster, because it can store and deploy energy over a lap much better. A bold claim, given his team's own success.

Carlos Sainz echoed Wolff’s words a day later. Sainz didn’t mention a one-second advantage like Wolff, but did indicate that Red Bull is a step ahead of the competition. “And not a small step, but a really clear lead.”

There is no denying that Red Bull have impressed, but this smacks of a deliberate attempt by the Mercedes-powered teams to point a finger in the opposite direction.

Teams do now have more and more data at their disposal—not only their own, but also that of their rivals. For instance, Mercedes offered a glimpse into GPS data to show that Red Bull is genuinely doing something the rest can’t.

But it also comes, after all, at a time when Mercedes are facing question marks about the legality of their power unit. It feels as though these comments - pumping up the talk of Red Bull being the strongest - is used to take themselves out of the spotlight.

Mercedes itself is under pressure because other manufacturers would love to get their hands on the rumoured compression trick, that increased power and remains undetected during scrutineering.

We are not even at the first race of the season and we are already seeing politicking as team's try to avert suspicion. It is all part of the fascinating element of F1.

For the meantime, the timesheets do not lie. Red Bull and Verstappen are quick, but we will not know the real picture until we get to the Australian Grand Prix next month, which is when we will see just how good the Mercedes engine is, and whether Wolff was right to tip his opponents as the favourites.

Also check out the latest episode of F1 TODAY, in which the guys look ahead to the winter test in Bahrain!