The data is clear: it would be unfair if Russell were replaced at Mercedes

Many people felt sorry for Carlos Sainz in 2024. The Spaniard had been performing well for years alongside Charles Leclerc, but still had to leave in 2025, as Ferrari got the 'once in a lifetime' chance to bring in Lewis Hamilton.

Yet, there was a case for replacing Carlos Sainz. After all, the Spaniard was inferior to Charles Leclerc over his three years at Ferrari. Moreover, Leclerc is younger than Sainz, so if someone had to leave, it makes sense that the older driver is moved aside.

This makes the situation at Mercedes more painful. George Russell has indeed been in charge at Mercedes for a few years, even when Lewis Hamilton was still at the team.

Russell debuted alongside Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes in 2022. That year, Russell had the challenging task of succeeding Valtteri Bottas, the ideal person to play the second fiddle, at Mercedes. However, the Brit did exceptionally well. In his first season for Mercedes, his head-to-head record over the Grands Prix finished even with Hamilton, Russell scored more points, and they were remarkably close in qualifying.

In the second year, Russell got even closer in qualifying but experienced a setback on Sundays. Hamilton proved to be a bit more consistent, resulting in a significant defeat for Russell in the race head-to-head.

In 2023, Russell and Hamilton each received a new contract. Both for two years, as communicated by Mercedes, but with Hamilton, it turned out to be a 1+1 deal. Mercedes wanted to keep the door open for Andrea Kimi Antonelli and also take the aging Hamilton into account. Hamilton approached Ferrari and therefore would only compete for Mercedes in 2024.

That season, Mercedes was proven right. Russell took the lead at Mercedes in both qualifying and the Grands Prix. Hamilton fans might say that the seven-time world champion was already focusing on Ferrari, but Hamilton's current performance shows no signs of improvement either.

Despite Russell taking the lead at Mercedes, the search for a new leader for Mercedes was out in the open. Toto Wolff tried to lure Max Verstappen to his team to succeed Lewis Hamilton. Verstappen did not come, so Wolff chose to promote Antonelli to Formula 1.

For Russell, 2025 became the 'year of truth'. With year on his contract and the new star of Mercedes beside him, he had to perform to keep his seat. Looking at Russell's performances, one can say that the British driver has met the requirements. In 2025, Russell was better in both in qualifying and over the Grands Prix than Antonelli.

Yet, it is Russell whose future is uncertain. Mercedes has a lot of confidence in Antonelli, who is accepted to be some distance behind Russell. After all, it's his first year in Formula 1. At Mercedes, they take Oscar Piastri as an example, who also made significant progress in his second and third seasons.

At eighteen years old, it is not Antonelli but Russell who has to make way if Mercedes manages to bring Max Verstappen to the team. Even internally at Mercedes, there is a belief that Max Verstappen is the best driver on the F1 grid and could extract that extra few tenths. The mistakes Russell sometimes makes, Verstappen does not.

And so, as hard as it is, it makes sense for Mercedes to do everything to bring Verstappen in. A top driver can make the difference between winning or not winning a world title, as Mercedes experienced in 2021. This difference-maker can now be brought in by Mercedes, and then Russell has to step aside.

For Russell, it's not all doom and gloom. Although he will naturally be disappointed about leaving Mercedes, there are plenty of other teams where Russell could land in 2026 and become the absolute team leader. A more detailed analysis of this can be read here.