Mercedes banking on its ace despite mounting threat

Mercedes heads into the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid still leading both championships. Kimi Antonelli tops the drivers’ standings, but the comfortable position from earlier this season has become less of a given in recent months. The Italian even acknowledged after Zandvoort that Mercedes currently no longer has the fastest car, although the Italian GP painted a different picture.

Before Monza, Lando Norris won two races in a row for McLaren, while Ferrari has also made strides over the season. Mercedes started the year dominantly and won the first six races, but took “only” three victories in the last seven Grands Prix. That’s partly due to the more frequent updates brought by rival teams, whereas Mercedes opts for larger packages with more time in between.

GPblog understands that the feeling within the team isn’t necessarily comfortable as it watches rivals draw closer. Still, there is confidence within Mercedes about the position the team is in. The built-up lead plays an important role in the projections for the rest of the season. With the major upgrade package scheduled for the Malaysian Grand Prix, Mercedes hopes to have enough in hand for the title fight.

There is also an engine update in the pipeline: the plan is to introduce it sometime after the Azerbaijan GP, and thus not already in Baku. Why not earlier, as Ferrari did? That has everything to do with the expectations beforehand: not only Red Bull Racing, but Mercedes as well was surprised by the deficit it turned out to have according to the FIA’s ADUO assessment. That meant the team could only respond after the results were announced, and less preparation means later updates.

It is not necessarily expected that the W17 will be the fastest car at every remaining Grand Prix. Mercedes is taking into account that a competitor could gain an advantage again later in the season through its own developments. Even if, for instance, another car is quicker in the final two races, there is confidence within the team that the accumulated margin and the planned developments should be sufficient. However, there is also awareness that the balance of power can change very quickly due to unexpected events.

The gaps between the larger upgrade packages simultaneously create some uncertainty. This season, Mercedes has consciously chosen a different development strategy than some rivals. Instead of constantly introducing new parts, the available resources are spread across the season and more substantial steps are brought at preselected moments.

That also has a downside. When McLaren or Ferrari introduces a successful interim update, Mercedes cannot automatically respond immediately. As a result, the W17 can lose ground before the next major package is available. McLaren’s recent development shows how quickly the balance of power can shift.

After the Dutch Grand Prix, Toto Wolff already explained why Mercedes doesn’t simply bring more developments forward. "We don’t have the money to constantly put updates on the car. I’ve said before that we try to spread that evenly over the season, based on our calculations of when we can bring the biggest updates and optimize the championship points. But we simply can’t do what we can’t do", said the Mercedes team principal.

Since the major package at the Canadian Grand Prix, Mercedes has mainly made smaller tweaks to the W17. Meanwhile, McLaren and Ferrari have taken bigger steps. Wolff pointed out that a successful update at a top team can quickly deliver a few tenths and acknowledged that this has made things tougher than during the dominant start to the season.

The next key moment in the development plan comes in Malaysia. A substantial aerodynamic upgrade package is scheduled for the race in Sepang. Its arrival is now public knowledge and forms an important part of how Mercedes has allocated its available budget over the season.

Earlier this season, Wolff made it clear that Mercedes is deliberately waiting for the right moment to introduce larger developments. After the Austrian Grand Prix, he said that a significant step was already ready in the wind tunnel, but that Mercedes did not want to bring it to the car yet. According to the Austrian, the team had to carefully determine within the budget cap when the return on an update would be greatest. For the final major development, the team has thus decided that Malaysia is the best moment to do so. It is not ruled out that the ADUO update will also be introduced there, although nothing official is known about that.