For now, long runs raise questions about a 'slow' Verstappen's chances

As usual, it’s difficult to get an exact indication of race pace when analyzing long runs, simply because we don’t know the fuel loads and engine modes the teams were running. With only one practice session in a sprint weekend, it’s also likely that teams still need to fine-tune their setups. Consistency over multiple laps can, however, be a good sign heading into race day - in this case for the sprint race on Saturday and the Grand Prix on Sunday.

The four top teams showed different approaches in the run-up to sprint qualifying, with Red Bull and Mercedes doing longer long runs of around eight to nine laps, while McLaren and Ferrari stuck to four to six laps. The two Ferrari drivers set the quickest times and thus also took the fastest average laps. In the paddock, the Italian team is therefore being tipped as the favorite on pace, GPblog has gathered from rival teams.

Of the Ferrari duo, Lewis Hamilton is the fastest man with a 1:32.261 average, while teammate Charles Leclerc is about two tenths slower. The Monegasque admitted on Thursday that he needs to work on his pace and has struggled over the past few weekends. Since the Monaco Grand Prix, things have been better on the other side of the garage. For Ferrari, implementing team orders or making one of the two drivers a ‘number one’ is off the table for now, team boss Frédéric Vasseur said during the press conference.

While Ferrari posted the quickest averages, Red Bull found themselves at the back this time. With the current program, the hard tire, fuel load and engine modes, Verstappen recorded an average lap time of 1:34.180. Isack Hadjar is even half a tenth quicker with an average of 1:34.058. The gap to Ferrari and also Mercedes is significant. Among the Mercedes duo, Kimi Antonelli is the fastest, with an average of 1:32.946.

That makes him six tenths slower than Hamilton, but more than a second faster than Verstappen and Hadjar. Russell is the slower of the two and clocks a 1:33.197. The gap between them is just over two tenths. Of all the drivers, Russell, Verstappen and Hadjar completed the longest long runs, all on the hard tire. Only towards the end of the session were the medium and soft tires used for qualifying runs.

As mentioned, it’s still hard to draw a firm conclusion about Red Bull’s Friday in Silverstone, but Verstappen finished FP1 a long way behind Ferrari and Mercedes and certainly doesn’t look like the favorite heading into race day if you analyze the long runs above. Verstappen reported some understeer over the radio and had an issue with the headrest, as his hand got stuck. He didn’t really speak of major problems in conversation with race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase.

Among the four top teams, McLaren is something of a question mark. Oscar Piastri spun during the session and couldn’t do a long run, while Norris, in terms of pace, sits a bit in no man’s land behind the Ferraris but ahead of the Red Bulls. Over a single lap, McLaren and Red Bull also came up short, even though Verstappen took third fastest. The circuit—with its high-speed characteristics - has often produced positive results for both teams in previous editions.