'If Helmut made the decisions, I'd say that 90 per cent he'd be out'

07:41, 17 Nov

Updated: 08:43, 17 Nov

byNorberto Mujica

Former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya thinks that Yuki Tsunoda would be the odd man out of contention for a seat within the Red Bull fold, despite the Japanese driver's improvements.

"But it’s not so black and white because if I put it to you like this: if Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90 per cent he would be out."

- Juan Pablo Montoya.

Photo: RacePictures.

Currently Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar are the only drivers confirmed by Red Bull for 2026, with the Dutch driver announcing his stay at Red Bull earlier and the year, and the French Algerian rookie still to learn what the future holds: a promotion to the Austrian team, or another year at Racing Bulls.

However, Liam Lawson and Tsunoda, along with F1 hopeful Arvid Lindblad are all vying for the remaining two seats, and Montoya thinks politics are playing a substantial role in the decision.

Speaking to MontoyAS podcast he weighed in on the Japanese driver's chances to continue on at Red Bull, claiming that if it were up to DR. Helmut Marko, the team's chief advisor, Tsunoda would almost certainly be let go.

Montoya: Marko would let Tsunoda go

“I think there is a small chance because of politics and I don’t want to talk about it here,” he said.

“But it’s not so black and white because if I put it to you like this: if Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90 per cent he would be out.

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“But right now things have changed a bit; they are a little more political. Red Bull Austria, it seems to me, wants to have a little more control of what is happening in the team.

“So now, how the decisions are made and the things that happen are going to change a bit, especially because there are three seats.

“Lindblad goes up for sure; it’s whether Yuki leaves or whether Liam Lawson leaves. Theoretically, that is the plan.”

Tsunoda's improved, but Hadjar and Lawson bring hom the points

The Colombian thinks that Tsunoda has done enough to merit another season, but with Lawson and Hadjar always finishing in the points at Racing Bulls makes things more complicated.

“If you look, Yuki has done a good job compared to what Lawson could have done and what everyone in that Red Bull car has done until now,” he added. “So the work Yuki is doing is not ideal, but he has improved.

“So, if they give Yuki one more year, I think Yuki will be able to start aligning things. So it wouldn’t be so logical to take him out.

“And Lawson and Hadjar are finishing in the points, both of them.”

Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar. Photo: RacePictures

But, according to Montoya, Marko's lack of control over the situation makes matters more difficult to assess.

The former F1 driver thinks that all four drivers deserve the three seats that are available, yet if one was indeed to be let go from the team it would ultimately be Tsunoda.

“If you look at it from the outside, if you take Helmut out of there and look at the results of the four drivers they have for three seats, they deserve to continue. So the problem is that there is a lot of politics and everything.

“On one hand, I think Yuki still has very strong political ties within Red Bull that can keep him there, and on the other hand, everyone still has a bit of a chance there. If they were to take someone out, the most probable would be Yuki,” he concluded.

Red Bull reveals massive 'gains' after Brazil GP woes

Red Bull struggled with grip in Brazil, leading to a poor sprint and Verstappen’s P16 elimination in Q1. The team broke Parc Fermé to change setup and fit a new power unit, after which Verstappen drove from the pit lane to the podium despite an early puncture.

Team boss Laurent Mekies said the tough moments helped the team understand the issues from a different perspective, with the crew in Brazil and Milton Keynes questioning assumptions and rebuilding the car three times. Read Mekies' full statements here.

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