Victories Verstappen and Hamilton in Mexico compared: Who is really the favourite?

They have split the past four editions of the Mexico Grand Prix between them and are fighting a neck-and-neck battle for the 2021 world title: Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton. Both drivers have an excellent track record at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, but who goes into the race weekend with the best credentials?

Formula 1 also calls them the 'Masters of Mexico'. Both Verstappen and Hamilton have won two races at the Mexico City circuit, which made a return to the calendar in 2015 after a year-long absence. So on paper the title rivals have an equal chance of winning the race, but who did it better? We put the victories side by side to find out.

2016 | Dominant weekend for Hamilton

In 2016, Hamilton took the win after an overall dominant weekend. The Briton was in the top three throughout the weekend and was also the fastest on Saturday. Verstappen qualified third, three tenths behind Hamilton.

Verstappen crossed the finish line in third place, sixteen seconds behind Nico Rosberg, but had to surrender his podium position after receiving a five-second time penalty for cutting a corner.

2017 | Weekend falls the way of Verstappen

Verstappen crossed the finish line as the winner in 2017, closing a twenty-second gap to Valtteri Bottas, who finished second to Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton fell short of ninth place after making contact with Sebastian Vettel on the first lap and suffering a puncture as a result.

The weekend developed rather unpredictably. Both Mercedes and Red Bull Racing performed well in the free practice sessions, but on Saturday it was Sebastian Vettel who took pole position on behalf of Ferrari. Verstappen qualified next to the German on the front row of the grid and was four tenths of a second quicker than Hamilton, who was third fastest.

The Dutchman was able to overtake Vettel at the second corner, but the contact between Vettel and Hamilton prevented a direct duel. This allowed Verstappen to take the win relatively easily.

2018 | Red Bull develops into favorite in Mexico

Verstappen also won the race in 2018 and thus did so for the second time in a row. Vettel finished second with a gap of seventeen seconds to Verstappen, followed by Raikkonen in third. Hamilton finished the race fourth, which was enough to secure the world title.

In 2018, Red Bull developed into the big favourite for the Mexico Grand Prix. Verstappen topped all three free practice sessions, but had to leave teammate Daniel Ricciardo ahead in qualifying. Hamilton came a tenth short of Verstappen's time on Saturday. The Dutchman took the lead in the race and managed to build up a substantial gap.

Hamilton did not play a major role in the race on Sunday. Verstappen, on the other hand, pulled the race to himself right at the start and was able to turn his strong weekend into a convincing win.

2019 | Verstappen loses after eventful weekend

In 2019, it was Hamilton who crossed the finish line first. Verstappen had to make do with sixth place, after he collided with Bottas in the early stages of the race and suffered a puncture in the process. After this, the Dutchman had to come back from the back of the field.

Hamilton may have won the race, but Mercedes did not go into the weekend as the favourite. Verstappen underlined why this was the case in qualifying: his pole time was no less than half a second quicker than Hamilton's, who qualified fourth.

The joy was short lived though. Verstappen was given a three-place grid penalty for ignoring a yellow flag caused by a crash by Bottas. Because of this the Dutchman had to leave Hamilton behind him. Also this time a direct duel between the two remained out of reach: Verstappen lost a lot of time when he suffered a puncture when he touched Bottas, which was only diagnosed after he passed the pit lane.

The Red Bull driver then found himself at the back of the field and had to work his way to the front. Verstappen had an impressive race to catch up and moved up to sixth place. Hamilton was able to drive to victory relatively unthreatened.

Conclusion | Who has the best chances in Mexico?

Despite the fact that both drivers have two wins to their name in Mexico, Verstappen and Red Bull Racing are seen as the big favourites for the upcoming edition. After all, if Red Bull were able to win in the dominant Mercedes era, they certainly are now.

The cars are particularly well matched in 2021 and there is no reason to believe that the Red Bull car would not perform as well at the high altitude circuit this time around. Mercedes, on the other hand, struggles with reliability issues and usually suffers even more at high altitudes.

The way in which both drivers have achieved their on-track victories also plays a part in this. In his first season for Red Bull, Verstappen finished third, which was to be a sign of things to come.

All in all, it was Verstappen who left the biggest impression on the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. The fact that he won two races there with a lead of around twenty seconds in a car that Mercedes generally couldn't challenge is a major factor in the role of favourite attributed to him. Hamilton has done what he had to do in previous editions of the Grand Prix, but will have an even bigger job to do with Verstappen and Red Bull this time around than he is used to.