F1 paddock overwhelmingly picks surprise favorite for the Monaco Grand Prix

The reason lies mainly in the character of the circuit. Traditionally, Monaco is one of the few tracks on the calendar where engine power plays a smaller role and where mechanical grip, balance, and cornering performance are decisive. And it’s precisely in those areas that Ferrari is currently impressing.

Lando Norris is among those who see Ferrari as the favorite. Although McLaren has regularly battled Mercedes in recent races, the Brit expects the hierarchy could be different in Monaco. "Honestly, I think the Ferrari will be on pole next weekend in Monaco," Norris says in a conversation with, among others, GPblog. "Their low-speed performance is far better than everyone else.” At the same time, the Brit hopes his own F1 team can also make life difficult for Mercedes.

That view is also shared by McLaren itself, although they also emphasize that certain parts of the circuit suit Mercedes well. Team boss Andrea Stella points out, in response to a question from GPblog, that Monaco is more than just a collection of hairpins. According to the Italian, medium- and high-speed corners also play a significant role: "The Casino corner is taken at more than 150 kph, the section through Tabac is around 170-180 kph, the Swimming Pool is more than 200 kph. So actually, medium-to-high-speed performance is important in Monaco."

At the same time, the street circuit also features a number of extremely slow sections that are almost unique: "Some of the low speed is extremely low speed, and in a way is in its own range, like if you think the the slow-speed section in the second sector. So it's one of its own."

It’s precisely that combination that Stella believes plays into Ferrari’s hands: "I definitely see Ferrari as probably the favourite, but McLaren can be competitive and we may try to repeat last year's achievement in Monaco." Back then, McLaren took a double podium, with a win for Norris and third place for Piastri, ahead of Max Verstappen. Leclerc finished second in his home race.

The McLaren team boss also sees clear indications in the data for Ferrari’s favorite status: “I think when we look at the overlay based on the GPS speed, we can see that Ferrari is definitely a competitive chassis in the corners. In the first sector, for example, they have always been very competitive."

According to Stella, those are exactly the traits that get rewarded in Monaco. Moreover, he believes one of Ferrari’s biggest weaknesses largely disappears there: “We saw in Canada that Ferrari lost time on the straights, but that is much less of a factor in Monaco. So I think Lando is quite right in seeing Ferrari as possibly the favourite car for pole position in Monaco.”

Oscar Piastri also expects Ferrari to show strong pace: "I'm expecting Ferrari to be quick in Monaco. They're quick there every year somehow and I think this year, with the kind of characteristics they have - looking very good in the corners and maybe struggling a bit more on the straights - Monaco is going to be a good track for them.".

At Ferrari, they are trying to temper expectations somewhat, although Charles Leclerc also acknowledges that Monaco may offer the best chance so far: "I think Mercedes is a very, very, very strong team and a very all-rounded team, whether it's in the corners or on the straights. If there's one race this year where I feel we could have more of a shot at pole, it would be Monaco. And I hope that will be the case."

Lewis Hamilton points to the same fundamental difference between Monaco and the circuits where Ferrari fell short earlier this season. The seven-time world champion complained in Canada about a lack of power compared to the competition, but expects that to matter less in Monaco.

"That’s the one track that power is not king. I think that’s definitely car performance. I think our car could be really strong there." The Brit notes that Ferrari can keep up with the competition in the corners but mainly loses time on the straights: "I’m able to hold on or keep up with them through the corners and I can’t push the pedal any further. And you see them just eking out the straight and you catch them back in the brakes, they eke it out in the straights"

Because Monaco hardly has any long straights, many teams expect that disadvantage to be far less visible than at circuits like Canada. That makes the upcoming Grand Prix particularly interesting. Whereas Mercedes has served as the reference point in recent months, the signals from the paddock now point largely in the same direction. Not to George Russell or Kimi Antonelli, but to Ferrari, Charles Leclerc, and Lewis Hamilton. Monaco could well be the weekend in which the balance of power at the top temporarily shifts. Conversely, Red Bull Racing and Verstappen might find it tough on the street circuit in Monte Carlo.