Verstappen beats Russell in tricky long runs; Red Bull may have an advantage

The two Red Bull drivers even started the first free practice much better than we’ve seen in a while, with Verstappen ending the session as the fastest man. In the second free practice the programs naturally began to diverge, with a few quick runs first, then long runs, and finally some qualifying runs to finish.

It wasn’t easy to find a good window for the long runs, and those who didn’t manage them in the first half of the session were hampered by two red flags. After about twenty minutes there was a red flag due to gravel on the track, and in the closing stages the session was halted for a long time after Pierre Gasly had a hefty crash. A few drivers therefore weren’t able to do any long runs at all.

As usual with long runs, we have to keep in mind that we don’t know which engine modes, fuel loads, and setups the teams were running. At Red Bull, the plan at least seemed geared toward a longer long run. Verstappen and Hadjar once again logged the longest long runs, while Ferrari and Oscar Piastri didn’t get around to it.

Just like in previous race weekends, it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions from a somewhat chaotic session in which teams ran different programs, but Red Bull’s pace currently looks promising. Verstappen’s 1:51.876 average on the medium compound versus George Russell’s 1:51.980 looks good, and the gap to Kimi Antonelli is around three tenths. That difference has been much larger before.

Verstappen explained after FP2 that the car was in a good window and that he “didn’t experience any major issues this Friday,” which means Red Bull may already be able to focus on fine-tuning the car. Teammate Hadjar showed slightly less pace. He’s about six tenths off Verstappen and the slowest of the leading group.

Antonelli’s long run emerges as the strongest in the table, though it’s fairly short. He had just started to push when the red flag disrupted his rhythm. He did appear to be running consistently. Russell wasn’t immediately in as good a rhythm as Antonelli, and his long run was also much shorter.

Although no real conclusion can be drawn about McLaren’s pace, Norris’s two consistent laps are noted. A “long run” of only two laps hardly qualifies as a long run at all—Norris, too, was hindered by the chaotic session. There seems to be some work to do for McLaren, while their single-lap pace looks fine.

It’s undoubtedly helpful for a team if both drivers manage to complete reasonably long runs in such a disrupted session. In that respect, Verstappen and Hadjar may have collected more data than Mercedes and McLaren. Ferrari’s pace is the biggest question mark at the moment. In both the qualifying runs and the long runs, they weren’t as strong as hoped.