This F1 driver is at risk of losing his seat in the 2026 season

The 2026 F1 season marks the start of a new era for the sport. New technical regulations, new engine suppliers, and two new teams mean the pecking order remains uncertain for now. For younger, less experienced drivers, adaptability will be crucial alongside the quality of the car.

Several contracts expire at the end of 2026. Drivers who don’t perform immediately risk being sidelined at the first sign of disappointing results. In that context, the contrast becomes clear between drivers with a firm position within their teams and those for whom 2026 will be decisive.

For two drivers, this appears to be the case: Liam Lawson and Franco Colapinto. Red Bull Racing is known for not shying away from a mid-season swap, but it’s unlikely they would demote Isack Hadjar in his first year alongside Max Verstappen, nor prematurely promote or drop the highly promising talent Arvid Lindblad.

Lawson appears to be on shakier ground. He had a difficult start to 2025, being moved from Red Bull back to Racing Bulls two Grands Prix into the season. With 38 points and a fourteenth-place finish in the championship, he managed to recover somewhat as the season progressed, although he finished behind the rookie Hadjar. In 2026, he cannot afford to be beaten by the next rookie in line, Lindblad.

2026 will also be a make-or-break year for Franco Colapinto. The Argentinian finished 2025 as the only driver without points. In eighteen races, he failed to record a single top-ten finish after replacing Jack Doohan at Alpine. The car and its engine offered little support, but even in the head-to-head battle with Pierre Gasly, Colapinto consistently came up short.

Compounding matters, Colapinto was involved in incidents again, something that had already hurt him at Williams. The pace gap to his teammate persisted. Within Alpine, that situation became a topic of discussion during the season, with signs that a mid-2025 replacement was seriously considered. Still, under Flavio Briatore’s leadership, the team chose to continue with the Argentinian in 2026.

The switch from Alpine to Mercedes engines could be an opportunity. If the French constructor also builds a strong chassis around it, Colapinto’s position could look very different. The young Argentinian showed at Williams—where he made his F1 debut in 2024 and drove nine races after replacing the axed Logan Sargeant—that he can hold his own under high pressure.

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