The four key takeaways after qualifying for the United States Grand Prix

Valtteri Bottas' future in Formula 1 is on the line. This week, his seat at Cadillac turned out to be far less secure than expected. The American team's management still wants to promote American Colton Herta. He brings far greater marketing value, and let's face it: everyone is running at the back in a Cadillac.

Bottas has struggled against Sergio Perez this season. Of the two experienced drivers, Bottas was expected to be quick on Saturdays and Perez on Sundays. However, the Mexican has beaten Bottas on both days. After qualifying in the United States, Perez leads their qualifying head-to-head 10-8. The average gap of two tenths per qualifying session in particular will do little to strengthen Bottas' position at the negotiating table. He was beaten by Perez once again in his employer's home country, this time by a narrow margin of less than a tenth.

Herta is the firm favourite to take over Bottas' seat at Cadillac, but Esteban Ocon is also hoping to make a bid for it. Texas once again showed, however, why Haas is parting ways with the Frenchman. The qualifying head-to-head stands at 13-4 in favour of the much younger Oliver Bearman. Ocon has never really been a challenge for Bearman.

In 2026, Max Verstappen finally has a teammate who can keep up with him. Second place was the best Verstappen could manage in qualifying in the United States, but his teammate Isack Hadjar will start right behind him. The gap between the two Red Bull drivers was just 0.036 seconds.

This is in line with what we have seen from the two teammates so far this season. The result in Austin puts the qualifying head-to-head at 9-3 in favour of the Dutchman, but the small average gap is particularly striking. Hadjar is, on average, just 0.13s off Verstappen's pace in qualifying. Such a tiny gap between Verstappen and a teammate has not been seen since Daniel Ricciardo.

George Russell is practically handing Kimi Antonelli the world title on a silver platter. Antonelli will need everything to go his way in Austin to become world champion, but Texas has once again shown us something we have seen so often this year: Antonelli is simply a cut above Russell. The qualifying gap was four tenths, leaving Antonelli on pole and Russell starting from P6.

Antonelli can become world champion in Austin if he wins, Lewis Hamilton finishes fifth or lower, and Russell finishes ninth or lower. Based on the qualifying results, Russell would only need to drop two more places for Antonelli to take the title. The numbers speak for themselves: Antonelli leads the qualifying head-to-head 11-7, with Kimi holding a narrow advantage.