Lawson under immense pressure to retain his Formula 1 seat for 2027

It may feel like Lawson has been around in Formula 1 for years, but in reality, he’s only in his third season as a full-time driver in the sport. In 2023, Lawson made his debut as a temporary replacement for Daniel Ricciardo, who was sidelined by injury. He then started the 2024 season on the sidelines. At the end of that year he again replaced Ricciardo, this time for good.

In 2025, he was immediately promoted to Red Bull Racing, only to be demoted back to Racing Bulls after two races. At the end of the year, he was told he would race for the team again in 2026.

It’s been a turbulent path for a driver whose career seems to mirror that trajectory. In the junior categories, Lawson alternated between notable highs and deep lows, and F1 has proved no different. The most frustrating part for Lawson is that, throughout all those races, he hasn’t truly been able to show what he is capable of.

The best point of comparison for a driver is his teammate with the same machinery. If you beat your teammate, a chance at a top team beckons, but if you get beaten, you can find yourself closer to the exit door.

The question is whether Lawson has shown enough to avoid dropping out of the top tier of motorsport by the end of 2026.

If you look at Lawson’s data relative to his teammates, the picture isn’t very flattering.

His first teammate in F1 was Yuki Tsunoda. Across his two stints in 2023 and 2024, Lawson was no match for the Japanese driver. In qualifying, Lawson was clearly behind Tsunoda.

In the races, Lawson finished ahead of Tsunoda more often, but the Japanese driver scored more points. Given that, it remains remarkable that Red Bull Racing chose Lawson over Tsunoda at the start of 2025.

His time at Red Bull Racing was limited to two Grands Prix. In those, Lawson was completely outclassed by Max Verstappen. The average gap in qualifying was more than a second, and the picture was no different on Sundays. Lawson therefore returned to Racing Bulls, where he became Isack Hadjar's teammate.

The return to Racing Bulls didn’t go smoothly either. The Frenchman outperformed Lawson in both qualifying and the races. In Lawson’s defense, he had to process a significant mental blow, but on the other hand, he had more experience than the young Frenchman.

For 2026, Red Bull once again chose Lawson over Tsunoda. Lawson kept his seat at Racing Bulls and remained the more experienced driver within the team, while Tsunoda was demoted to reserve driver to make room at the Faenza-based team for Arvid Lindblad. Hadjar, meanwhile, successfully moved up to Red Bull Racing.

As the leader of Racing Bulls, Lawson is doing what he needs to do in 2026 so far: beat Lindblad. The margin by which he is doing so is very small, though. For someone who has already been in the sport for four years, you would expect him to open up a bigger gap to a driver in his rookie season. A 0.040s advantage in qualifying is simply too small.

For years, Red Bull had been looking for its next talent, but immediately after Lindblad, another youngster is already knocking on the door of F1. Bulgarian Nikola Tsolov leads the Formula 2 championship in his rookie season, having finished second in the 2025 Formula 3 championship a year ago. The 19-year-old therefore seems destined to take Lawson’s seat after 2026, provided Racing Bulls dares to field two such young drivers in its line-up.

When Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane was asked about Tsolov, he previously said: “He’s now leading the championship after his great weekend at Silverstone, so to say he's on the radar would be a little bit of an understatement. He’s next in line, I think is fair to say. When that will be, I don't know, honestly.”

As long as Lawson remains ahead of Lindblad, there is a case for keeping him in the team because of his experience. But if the New Zealander comes off second best in the second half of the season, his seat will truly be at risk. The pressure is therefore on Lawson to perform well in the second half of 2026.