Sainz as Verstappen's replacement? These are Carlos' options for 2027

Carlos Sainz is known as a very strong driver in Formula 1. He has driven for Renault, McLaren, and Ferrari and was never comprehensively outperformed by a teammate. Even strong teammates like Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc never left Sainz in the dust, as they would later do to his successors.

Still, the general perception of Sainz is that he loses many of his battles over the long term. Since entering F1 in 2015, he has only managed to beat Daniil Kvyat and Alexander Albon over a full season. Sainz also lost his head-to-head battles with Verstappen, Nico Hulkenberg, Lando Norris, and Charles Leclerc.

As mentioned, Sainz has never lost by an astonishing margin, just as he has never beaten a teammate by a landslide. Over the course of his career, it stands out that he has been defeated more often than he has come out on top, both in qualifying and in races.

Sainz's strong reputation is also due to his presence outside the car. He is a true leader and a figurehead for a team. Yet Sainz ultimately had to make way at Ferrari for the arrival of Lewis Hamilton, while Red Bull Racing also never chose to promote him to its main team.

A seat at a midfield team or a role as the second driver at a top team therefore seems to suit Sainz best. At a top team, he is unlikely to be easily outclassed by his teammate, while at a midfield team, he can act as the leader. Sainz is a mainstay, but not a star.

The seat Sainz is most logically hoping for is Verstappen's. The Dutchman has still not provided clarity about his Formula 1 future, although it increasingly appears that Verstappen will simply stay at Red Bull Racing. In that case, the silly season will have little impact on the top teams, leaving Sainz with no opportunity there.

Still, just like in 2024, Sainz will wait for Verstappen's final decision. In 2024, Sainz was also one of the main drivers on the market and hoped to sign with Mercedes or Red Bull Racing after his departure from Ferrari. Those doors did not open, however, which is why he ultimately chose Williams.

In 2026, Sainz and his management will again patiently wait to see if anything opens up at the top. If the new regulations have proven anything, it’s that the top four are currently out of reach for the other teams, and if you want to win races, you need a seat there. If there’s a chance, no matter how small, you have to wait patiently.

There are rumors that Sainz has already spoken with Red Bull Racing. As with all teams and drivers, there will always be talks. However, that does not mean there is a deal. Red Bull Racing fully expects Verstappen and Isack Hadjar to drive for the team in 2027.

With the door at top teams closed, Aston Martin might well be the best of the rest. With the facilities, financial resources, and top personnel such as Adrian Newey, Aston Martin has what it takes to grow into a top team. In addition, it has a works deal with Honda. That partnership has not delivered much so far, but Red Bull Racing proved not so long ago that it can win with Honda engines.

Given Aston Martin’s latest update, there is a strong case to be made that they have taken a step ahead of Williams. Aston Martin has the facilities and resources to bring rapid updates, allowing them to move towards the front more quickly. James Vowles has promised Sainz a lot, but so far, he has been left disappointed.

If Fernando Alonso decides to call it a day at the end of the 2026 season, Aston Martin seems like the dream next step for Sainz. The Spaniard would be joining a works team and working alongside Adrian Newey. Given Williams’ current performance, it’s certainly not a step back.

It also fits Aston Martin’s strategy. Lawrence Stroll has consistently paired his son Lance with a world champion. If Alonso leaves, only Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, and Lando Norris remain—and the chances of any of them going to Aston Martin are virtually zero. The next best thing is Sainz: a driver with wins, podiums, and enough star power to carry a brand like Aston Martin.

Two years ago, Sainz was choosing between Audi, Williams, and Alpine. As a works team, Audi appeared to hold the best cards, but Sainz was persuaded by Vowles to sign for Williams. That paid off with podiums in 2025, but in 2026, Williams has slipped back significantly while Audi is performing better.

Sainz might still want to make the switch to Audi now, but the door is closed at the German manufacturer. The team wants to continue with Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto. Hulkenberg even joked that there’s only one seat available for Sainz at Audi: that of reserve driver.

Other teams where a seat may open up are Alpine and Haas. As a team, Haas isn’t a step forward compared to Williams, and given Sainz’s ambition to fight for wins, Haas seems far from the right place. Alpine does have those ambitions, but as a Mercedes customer team, it isn't much further along than Williams.

The Enstone-based outfit is slightly ahead of Williams in terms of facilities, but not by much. Compared to the top teams—or, for example, Aston Martin—Alpine is still light-years behind. The question is whether Sainz would gain much by taking over Franco Colapinto’s seat.

Alpine did want to sign Sainz in 2024, but has now stated it would prefer to continue with the Argentine. However, Colapinto does seem to need to improve his performances if he’s to fully convince Flavio Briatore of a longer deal.

Of course, staying at Williams isn’t off the table for Sainz, and the Grove-based team would very much like to keep him. Sainz was the jewel they brought in, a gem Williams could be proud of. They’ll go to great lengths to retain him, but it’s clear that Spaniard is disappointed.

Much will depend on Williams’ Baku update. If that’s a major step forward, Sainz may retain faith that Williams can take the next step. However, when you hear Sainz speaking with a fair bit of envy about Aston Martin, it’s hard to escape the impression that he would jump at the chance to switch if the opportunity arises, at least.