F1 Tech | Preview: Can Red Bull's recent progress be confirmed in Singapore?

McLaren arrives in Singapore aiming to secure a consecutive Constructors’ Championship, which would be the cherry on top of a season dominated by the MCL39. Ferrari is seeking redemption on a layout that should not suit the SF-25 too well, while Mercedes will be hoping to limit the damage during a weekend expected to be one of the toughest for the W16. Let’s try to identify the main themes of the Singapore Grand Prix weekend.

Starting with Red Bull, the team comes to Singapore full of optimism following the last three weekends after the summer break. Since Zandvoort, they have managed to find a better operating window for the RB21, allowing it to perform at its full potential even on less favourable circuits. A few mechanical adjustments, together with minor brake changes, unlocked an initial step of performance in the Netherlands, where Verstappen managed to get within three tenths of Piastri in P1 during qualifying, on a layout that favoured the MCL39.

After that weekend, the team brought a new floor in Monza, which represented the key turnaround for the RB21: this new component, in fact, allowed the team to adopt more extreme ride heights and made the car much more balanced, providing a good amount of downforce across different kind of corners rather than making the car ‘peaky’. This led to a much more stable car already from Friday’s practice sessions, especially compared to the first half of the season when the team used Friday to experiment with very different set-ups before relying on Friday night’s work to have a good weekend.

This approach inevitably helped in Baku as well, with Verstappen quick from FP1 despite running low engine modes, and ultimately able to take both pole position and the race win on Sunday, delivering a race controlled from start to finish.

All of these factors, particularly from a technical perspective, leave Red Bull Racing calmer and more confident heading into Singapore. This circuit has never been their strongest since the start of the ground-effect era, but the regained performance over the past few races could place Red Bull in a position similar to, if not better than, what they achieved in Zandvoort.

Given the very hot temperatures and the high downforce required on this layout, McLaren will likely hold a modest advantage over their rivals this weekend.

However, the performance the RB21 displayed in the slow-speed corners in Baku could prove useful around Singapore as well. Temperatures may pose a challenge for the car, but everything will depend on how the team begins the weekend.

If they can establish a good base balance to work from on Friday and Saturday, they should clearly be in contention, at least for a podium finish.

Turning to McLaren’s weekend, expectations are high, as the team could secure the Constructors’ Championship once again following their 2024 victory over Ferrari.

Singapore may be the ideal track to celebrate this milestone with a win, as the layout should suit the MCL39 perfectly. The very hot conditions, combined with the rear-limited nature of the circuit, place significant stress on the rear axle, making tyre management crucial for competitiveness around Marina Bay.

During qualifying, it will be important to preserve the tyres across all three sectors, as overheating can lead to sliding and a loss of grip.

This factor, along with the four DRS zones on the circuit, may lead McLaren’s engineers to adopt the same rear wing configuration used in Zandvoort, capitalising on their advantage in downforce generated by the Venturi channels.

In Singapore, the MCL39 could also demonstrate an advantage in terms of cooling. As seen multiple times this season, McLaren’s car has a highly efficient cooling system, allowing engineers to run the car closer to its limits than rivals.

As a result, it would not be surprising to see the MCL39 carrying smaller fins on the engine cover compared to competitors, which could translate into faster lap times.

For Ferrari, this weekend will be an important opportunity to bounce back after recent struggles. Charles Leclerc has identified Singapore, along with Las Vegas, as potentially favourable circuits for the SF-25. However, the car’s performance in the last few races has been disappointing, with Leclerc and Hamilton finishing no higher than P8 and P9 in Baku.

As already explained in a dedicated analysis, the SF-25 still lacks a significant amount of mechanical grip compared to the MCL39 and RB21, which makes it relatively slow through low-speed corners.

In addition, the car has a very narrow operating window, meaning its behaviour can change drastically with variations in external conditions such as temperature, rain, or track grip.

This was evident in Baku, where the car ran 1-2 in Friday’s FP2 but both drivers struggled in qualifying. As the conditions changed, they were unable to get the tyres up to temperature, losing substantial lap time as a result.

As a result, it will be important for Ferrari to have as clean a weekend as possible in order to maximise the performance shown during Friday’s free practice sessions and translate it into effective lap times during qualifying.

The SF-25’s strong tyre management could be an advantage during the race, but it will be crucial for both drivers to start as far forward on the grid as possible, as this should improve their chances of a solid result.

Based on recent performances, a victory is likely out of reach for the Maranello team, though variable conditions, which are common in Singapore, could still create opportunities.

Mercedes, meanwhile, could face one of the toughest weekends of the season. The W16 struggles on tracks that feature hot temperatures and rear-limited layouts, which place significant thermal stress on the rear tyres.

Singapore represents these conditions perfectly, meaning the team may be under considerable pressure throughout the weekend.

Mercedes’ strong performance at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix allowed the team to move ahead of Ferrari into second place in the Constructors’ Championship.

Several factors contributed to that result, including the unusually cool conditions on race day, which significantly reduced tyre degradation, and the W16’s strong traction out of slow corners.

This weekend in Singapore, Mercedes will be focused on minimising damage. The main goal will be to stay ahead of the two Ferraris in order to maintain second place in the Constructors’ Championship.