Vasseur's 'not in my hands' echoes Binotto's last weeks at Ferrari
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11:30, 28 Sep
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Ben Hunt is an award-winning motorsport journalist with over two decades of experience in Formula 1 and international media. As a former editor-in-chief and bestselling author, he delivers in-depth analysis and strategic insight from the highest level of the sport.
Fred Vasseur said in Baku that his Ferrari future is "not in my hands", and people at Maranello have heard something like it before. Almost four years ago, Mattia Binotto used nearly the same words at the 2022 season finale. Nine days after that race, he was gone.
Vasseur spoke to the media on Saturday night after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. His comments were strangely reminiscent of those made by Binotto in late 2022, although there is no sign that Vasseur has grown weary of the pressure as he spoke of "the best job in the world". The background is the growing talk that the Frenchman's job is at risk. GPblog reported that the Frenchman could be replaced by the end of the year at the latest, in Dismissal looms for Vasseur, Horner positions himself for Ferrari.
There is some irony here. In 2022, Vasseur was the man tipped to take Binotto's job. Reports at the time claimed Binotto would be sacked, following speculation in the Italian media and Alfa Romeo's Vasseur was being lined up as a replacement.
Binotto: 'It is not down to me to decide'
The pressure on Binotto built over the last few weeks of that season. After the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, reports emerged that Ferrari's Team Principal Binotto was under pressure to keep his job. On 15 November 2022, Ferrari hit back with a short statement: "In relation to speculation in certain media regarding Scuderia Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto's position, Ferrari states that these rumours are totally without foundation".
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A few days later, Binotto was asked about his future in the Abu Dhabi press conference. He answered with the line that now sounds so close to Vasseur's:
"Obviously, it is not down to me to decide," he said, in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix press conference. "But I'm pretty relaxed. The reason why I'm relaxed is that I will always have open, frank and constructive discussions with my bosses, [Ferrari] chairman [John Elkann] – not only in the short term, but the medium and the long term.- Mattia Binotto, Abu Dhabi, November 2022
He did not stay relaxed for long. On returning from Abu Dhabi, he was met with silence from Ferrari senior management. It became crystal clear to him then that his time was almost up. Ferrari announced his resignation on 29 November. In less than two weeks after that denial, the team released a statement confirming the 53-year-old's departure.
His farewell statement ended: "I think it is right to take this step at this time, as hard as this decision has been for me."
Mattia Binotto - Photo: Audi Revolut F1 Team Content Hub
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Where the two timelines match, and where they differ
The two seasons have a similar shape. In 2022, Ferrari's strong championship challenge at the start of the year faded away as rivals Red Bull turned dominant.
This year, Ferrari has won two races and is currently second in the constructors' standings, albeit 160 points adrift of championship leaders Mercedes and the team's current performance level and prevailing issues are surprisingly similar to that of 2022, under Binotto's reign.
The contractual situation also lines up. Neither man was near the end of his deal when the questions started. Binotto's contract was due to expire at the end of 2023 while Vasseur signed a multi-year contract extension last season understood to run until at least the end of 2027. A year left on a contract did not protect Binotto in 2022.
The mood is where the two men differ. Binotto kept telling people he was calm. Vasseur however, has expressed frustration over the persistent speculation about his future at Maranello, and he made a point about how often the subject comes up: "Each interview, 25 times a day, we are coming back to this."
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What to watch over the final seven races
The 2022 precedent gives a rough idea of how these situations tend to play out at Ferrari:
- A formal denial. In 2022, Binotto said the club's statement came out of a chat with my chairman, we discussed openly what was the best way to move forward. If Ferrari puts out a similar public denial for Vasseur, that is exactly what happened in 2022, and it was followed by a departure within a fortnight.
- Talking to Elkann. Binotto's confidence depended on his talks with the chairman. Formula1.com reported that having had a call with Ferrari chairman John Elkann on the Wednesday before the race, Binotto believed his position was safe for now.
- The weeks after the finale. Binotto was never replaced during the season. His exit was confirmed just over a week after the last race, and the team said it intended to announce who would take over from Binotto in the new year.
None of this means Vasseur's fate is already sealed. Binotto's case shows that public backing and a calm tone from the man in charge said very little about what happened next. Since the Baku weekend, Vasseur's own line has been that the decision belongs to someone else.
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