Is the Belgian Grand Prix Max Verstappen's last chance to win?

15:27, 22 Jul

Co-author:Norberto Mujica

byTim Kraaij

After a F1 2-week hiatus, the Belgian Grand Prix is on the horizon. Belgium, alongside Hungary, marks the run up to the summer break. Will McLaren continue to dominate Formula 1, or will Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen bounce back following the dismissal of Christian Horner? Read all about it in GPblog's comprehensive preview.

Circuit Spa-Francorchamps

The Belgian Grand Prix has been held at the Spa-Francorchamps circuit for many years. Since the official Formula 1 championship was introduced, Formula 1 has driven in Nivelles, Zolder, but mainly in Spa. A total of 57 Grands Prix have been held on that circuit, making the race a classic on the F1 calendar.

Spa-Francorchamps is particularly loved by the drivers. Max Verstappen, among others, is a huge fan of the circuit in the Belgian Ardennes, which, due to its natural elevation changes and unique corners, is the ideal circuit to distinguish oneself as a driver. The Eau Rouge/Le Raidillon combination is especially popular.

History of the Belgian Grand Prix

For fans, the Belgian Grand Prix is a classic because the race is particularly unpredictable. It can rain at any time in the Ardennes, and overtaking is possible at multiple locations. A strategic masterstroke can thus produce a surprising winner.

At Spa-Francorchamps, one driver has won the most: Michael Schumacher. The German won a whopping six times, one more than Ayrton Senna. In third place is Lewis Hamilton, with five victories in the Belgian Ardennes. After his victory in 2024, Hamilton could equal Schumacher's record in 2025.

Among the teams, Ferrari holds the record at Spa-Francorchamps. Ferrari has managed to win in Belgium a total of fourteen times, although the gap with the second place is not large. McLaren has won twelve editions of the Belgian GP at Spa, meaning Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could reduce the gap to one in 2025.

Lewis Hamilton second on the podium, but he would eventually be dubbed the winner

Grand Prix of Belgium 2024

In 2024, Max Verstappen was the fastest man in qualifying, but the Dutchman started from the eleventh place due to a new engine and an accompanying grid penalty of ten places. The pole position was thus awarded to Charles Leclerc, but he failed to convert it into a victory.

During the Grand Prix of Belgium, it was mainly Lewis Hamilton who impressed. The Brit quickly overtook Leclerc and Sergio Perez, making him look set for an easy victory. However, George Russell crossed the finish line first, thanks to a daring strategy with only one pit stop. The victory eventually went to Hamilton, as Russell was disqualified due to an underweight car.

Read the full report of that race here.

Max Verstappen during his last Belgian victory in 2023

Formula 1 in 2025

In 2025, it is abundantly clear that McLaren is the boss. Although Max Verstappen still managed to claim two victories, it is Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri who are comfortably leading the championship. Piastri has already achieved five victories, as has Norris. Only three Grands Prix this season were not won by a McLaren.

While McLaren is not ready to admit it yet, all competitors agree that the championship will be a competition between Piastri and Norris only. The rest are competing for no real purpose this year and will focus primarily on 2026 when there will be completely new regulations for the engine and the car.

Red Bull will still pay some attention to 2025. The team must do everything they can to keep Max Verstappen onboard. The Dutchman can switch to Mercedes in 2026, but is patiently waiting to see if the technical team at Red Bull can turn the tide.

In addition, Red Bull also met the demands of the Verstappen camp by firing Christian Horner after the British Grand Prix. Laurent Mekies has now taken over, with a significant role for Helmut Marko inside the organisation once again.

Weather Forecast

According to the FIA weather radar's prediction, the chance of rain is highest on Friday. During the first free practice and qualifying for the sprint race, the chance of rain is estimated at 60%. However, this rain is mainly forecasted for the morning, with dry conditions and 21 degrees in the late afternoon.

On Saturday, the weather is expected to clear up and the chance of rain is estimated at only 20%. It will be cloudy on Saturday, with a maximum temperature of 22 degrees. On Sunday, it will cool off slightly to 21 degrees, with a 40% chance of rain. This rain is expected to fall in the afternoon, just as the Grand Prix is taking place.

Prediction for the Belgian GP

In 2025, placing a bet on McLaren is the most obvious choice. The team simply has the best car this season and a combination of high-speed corners and long straight lines is usually suitable for McLaren. The fact that McLaren can manage the tyres best will also help them during the race in Spa.

Yet, the cold temperature will play into the competition's hands. The lower temperatures will mean McLaren will have less advantage from tyre management, and should it rain, it will come down to the driver's abilities more.

Therefore, Max Verstappen is a serious challenger for the McLaren in Belgium. This is a circuit that should suit the RB21. That, combined with the lower temperature and possible updates for Red Bull, could bring Verstappen closer to a possible victory.

Mention lower temperatures, and you would mention Mercedes. Since the new regulations in 2022, Mercedes has not been able to win much, but when it is cold, Mercedes always competes. George Russell showed in 2024 that he could win with an optimistic strategy. If his car is legal this time, he too is a favorite.

Lastly, Ferrari must also be mentioned. Not because Ferrari stood out this year, or because the drivers did, but Ferrari and Spa are a good match, just like Hamilton and Spa have been for many years. Hamilton has won in Spa five times. Once with McLaren and four times with Mercedes. Will there be a first victory for Ferrari?

What time does the Grand Prix of Belgium 2025 start?

The Grand Prix of Belgium is a Grand Prix weekend that is organised in the sprint race format. So, there is only one free practice, followed immediately by qualifying for the sprint race. On Saturday, there is a sprint race and a qualifying for the main race. The Grand Prix of Belgium will be organised on Sunday 27 July 2025 and starts at 15:00 Dutch time.

Friday 25 July

Free Practice: 11:30 - 12:30

Sprint Qualification: 15:30 - 16:20

Saturday 26 July

Sprint Race: 11:00 - 11:30

Read also

Qualification: 15:00 - 16:00

Sunday 27 July

Grand Prix of Belgium: 14:00 - 16:00

United Kingdom: Sky Sports F1 exclusive

Live TV & Streaming: The Belgian GP will be broadcast exclusively on Sky Sports F1, covering every session live. Sky Go app: Stream on mobile, tablet, or Smart TV. NOW TV: No Sky subscription? Grab a One-Day Sports Pass, or a Monthly Sports Pass, to watch live.
Sky Go app: Stream on mobile, tablet, or Smart TV.

Follow F1 GP Belgium at GPblog

Of course, you can also visit GPblog throughout the whole Grand Prix weekend. As usual, the latest, most important, and most interesting news can be found first on GPblog.

With live blogs during the weekend sessions, you will be kept up to date on all the action on and off the track in Spa-Francorchamps.

Want to know where else you can watch Formula 1? Find the full overview here.