Buxton sees risk for Mercedes: 'Playing with fire if they choose Verstappen

Buxton describes the rumors about Verstappen and Mercedes as ‘both fascinating and confusing’. "There is no doubt that he is the best driver in F1," he writes on X. "But to make room for him, Mercedes faces a tough choice."

This choice, according to Buxton, revolves around sacrificing either George Russell or Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Mercedes has invested heavily in Russell, who, Buxton says, is perhaps having his best season in F1 this year. At the same time, Antonelli has been marked by Toto Wolff himself as the team's future star — a project that has been built carefully.

A switch by Verstappen would, according to Buxton, put that entire plan under the microscope: “Trying to bring in Max means you have to sacrifice either your investment in the present, or in the future. But on top of that comes an extra complication: what happens with Verstappen’s team-mates? Because that traditionally rarely ends well. He is so good that he doesn’t just dominate — he destroys.”

This makes it difficult for any teammate to stand firm, let alone develop. "If you let Russell go, you risk derailing Antonelli’s growth under the ruthless class of Max. If you let Antonelli go, you're pausing his development or losing him entirely. And then you have to hope that George doesn't suffer the same fate as so many beside Max."

"Any team on the grid would do everything to sign Max, such is his quality," Buxton continues. But precisely because Verstappen is so sought after, Mercedes faces a complex consideration. "Mercedes has always been pragmatic. Always focused on the long term."

Bringing in Verstappen would put further pressure on Red Bull, but Buxton wonders aloud whether that fits with the team's strategy: "Securing Verstappen takes him away from the competition and causes more unrest at an already shaky Red Bull. But does that not play more into short-term interests, while Mercedes has always looked further ahead?"

At the same time, Buxton does not rule out that it's all part of a larger game behind the scenes. "It's quite possible that Mercedes ends up not dropping anyone and that this whole story is just political pressure within the broader context of contract negotiations that extend beyond Mercedes alone."

Anyway, he concludes: "It's always possible that Mercedes ends up having to make an extremely tough decision. Fascinating times."