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Where do Gasly, Sainz and Albon need to finish to finish sixth in championship?

Where do Gasly, Sainz and Albon need to finish to finish sixth in championship?

30-11-2019 17:40 Last update: 18:58
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Nicolás Quarles van Ufford

Heading into the final race of the 2019 F1 season, the championship battles have already been settled, but there are still a lot of other fights going on in the championship, like the one for sixth place. Three drivers can still finish in that very position - here's what they need to do on Sunday in Abu Dhabi.

Currently, both Pierre Gasly and Carlos Sainz have 95 points, but the former has sixth place because he's finished a race in the highest position (second in Brazil compared to Sainz' third). Behind them is Alex Albon for Aston Martin Red Bull Racing.

The Thai driver joined Red Bull at the Belgian Grand Prix at the cost of Gasly and has been catching up to sixth ever since. His pointless finish in Brazil, however, has made it very difficult to still get sixth, as he is 11 points behind both Gasly and Sainz. Here is how they currently line up in the drivers' championship.

Position Driver Constructor Points
6. Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 95
7. Carlos Sainz Jr. McLaren 95
8. Alexander Albon Red Bull Racing 84

If either Gasly or Sainz indeed ends the year in sixth, it would be the first time since 2014 that a driver not driving for Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull would be in the top six. So, what does each of the three drivers need to do at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?

Pierre Gasly

Main objective: Don't get beaten by Sainz

The 23-year-old simply has to outscore Sainz on Sunday. Well, that's not very simple, given the Spaniard starts in eighth while he starts in 11th. He'll need a mega drive at the Yas Marina Circuit to get past the 25-year-old, or a slice of luck with a Safety Car or a favourable strategy.

Albon is 11 points behind, making things a bit more complicated.

If Albon finishes Gasly would have to finish in
P1 + Fastest lap P2
P1 P3
P2 + Fastest lap P5
P2 P6
P3 + Fastest lap P7
P3 P8
P4 + Fastest lap P9
P4 P10

Gasly's main advantage is he has the tiebreaker over both Sainz and Albon, unless either of them finishes second or better on Sunday. So, should both Gasly and Sainz finish without points, Gasly would stay above the Spaniard in the standings.

Carlos Sainz Jr.

Main objective: Beat Gasly

Sainz will have to make sure he beats Gasly in terms of points, given Gasly has the tiebreaker. Given he starts in eighth, three positions above Gasly in 11th, he has the platform to do exactly that. Crossing the line before Gasly (and with any number of points) is enough.

As is the case with Gasly, Sainz will have to hope Albon doesn't get his maiden podium in Abu Dhabi. The Thai driver would have the tiebreaker over Sainz in that case, as Albon's podium would have been more recent. Having said that, here is what Sainz would have to do to beat the Red Bull man in each scenario.

If Albon finishes Sainz would have to finish in 
P1 + Fastest lap P2
P1 P3
P2 + Fastest lap P5
P2 P6
P3 P7
P4 + Fastest lap P9
P4 P10

Sainz would only hold the tiebreaker over Albon if the Thai rookie doesn't finish on the podium on Sunday. If he does, he would hold the tiebreaker.

Alex Albon

Main objective: Get maiden podium

For Albon to even have a chance to finish sixth, he has to at least finish fourth. Yes, fifth and the fastest lap would put him level on points, but he doesn't hold the tiebreaker over either Sainz or Gasly, given they both have a podium this season and Albon doesn't. So, he has to finish at least fourth to even have a chance. So far, he's only finished fourth once in his F1 career (in Japan).

Realistically, for Albon to finish the season in sixth, he'd have to get his maiden podium, however, as it is highly unlikely both Sainz AND Gasly won't score points on Sunday.

P3 and a maiden podium would not only put Albon four points clear of the two midfield cars, it would also hand him the tiebreaker over Sainz. 

Another stat which doesn't favour Albon is that he hasn't outscored either Sainz or Gasly by more than 10 points this season, which is exactly what he needs to do tomorrow. Still, records are meant to be broken! Here is how Albon would finish sixth in the championship:

If Albon finishes  Gasly can't finish higher than Sainz can't finish higher than
P1 + Fastest lap P3 P3
P1 P4 P4
P2 + Fastest lap P6 P6
P2 P7 P7
P3 + Fastest lap P8 P8
P3 P9 P8 (or P9 if Sainz has Fas. lap)
P4 + Fastest lap P10 P10
P4 P11 P11

A lot of things need to break right for Albon, who starts in fifth and therefore will need to gain some places. Can the rookie pull it off?