Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff believes pole position is within reach in qualifying in Madrid, although he expects the battle for the top spot to be tighter than anticipated and potentially decided by just a few tenths of a second. After George Russell topped FP1 and Kimi Antonelli set the pace in FP2,
Mercedes remained at the top of the timesheets in FP3, with Antonelli posting a 1:32.797. The Italian finished 0.166 seconds clear of Charles Leclerc, with Oscar Piastri 0.189s behind in third and Lando Norris 0.236s off the benchmark in fourth, leaving four drivers from four different teams separated by less than a quarter of a second ahead of qualifying.
Speaking to Sky Sports at the end of FP3, the Austrian admitted that the picture remains difficult to predict ahead of qualifying. Wolff highlighted how close the field had been in final practice, stressing that putting together a clean lap without mistakes or traffic could prove decisive. He also pointed to Q1 as a potential challenge with all the cars on track, while the possibility of yellow or red flags could influence the timing of the decisive runs in Q3.
“Nobody really knows what to expect. The session was tight. It’s about putting a lap together without mistakes and traffic. It’s going to be interesting to see the situation in Q1 with all of the cars on track. And then also Q3, do you put the lap in early to avoid risking a yellow or red flag."
Wolff also pointed to Mercedes' behaviour on the soft tyre, explaining that the team struggles more to extract performance on the first flying lap, with the second attempt generally proving quicker. He suggested tyre temperatures could be playing a part, while noting that some of Mercedes' rivals are showing a similar pattern.
The Austrian also said both Russell and Antonelli are positive about the new Madrid circuit, although he believes qualifying will reward those able to push closest to the limit without making a costly mistake, especially with overtaking expected to be extremely difficult in the race.
“On the soft tyre, we seem to struggle more on the first lap. We’re running maybe a bit hotter than we can do it, but the second lap has generally been the quicker one, also for some of our competitors.
“I only heard positives (from his drivers). It’s a new challenge. The layout is interesting. Obviously, it’s about who dares to push the most without putting it in the wall, because a bad qualifying session can end your race – overtaking is not going to happen.
“I think if we put it all together, we fight for pole and the front row, but it could be a little bit of yo-yoing. It could be all within a tenth, so you could be on the good side of it or the wrong side."