Monaco Grand Prix weather forecast: Sunday rain could cause havoc

With Mercedes’ winning streak expected to be challenged in Monte-Carlo, the drivers likely won’t have any extra distractions from the skies. The forecast suggests a dry and hot weekend with temperatures of around 25 degrees through all three days of action from Friday through until Sunday.

However, some rain is on the radar, with weather often playing a crucial role in making Sunday’s race the spectacle it deserves. For Friday’s FP1 and FP2, temperatures range from 19°C to 25°C in what should be a sunny and humid day with a 4 per cent chance of rain.

On Saturday, the chance of rain increases to 8 per cent and more cloudy conditions are expected for FP3 and qualifying, with the temperature again 19°C to 25°C. But on Sunday, things become more unpredictable. Things heat up with a temperature range of 21°C to 27°C for the race, and the chance of rain increases to 25 per cent.

Due to the unpredictable nature of the climate in Monaco and the track being one of the most challenging of the season, Williams are coming extra prepared should wet weather cause them issues like it did last time out in Canada.

Team principal James Vowles highlighted in the team's YouTube video: "Weather frequently forms a part of Monaco, and it's unpredictable to some extent, but we've had a number of wet races. So, it's a challenging circuit with low grip where the drivers are pushing the cars to the limit, and it may be our first proper wet grand prix, which would be a heck of a challenge."

With much of the early 2026 F1 season being dominated by complains about energy deployment, Monaco is likely to offer a respite due to its trademark heavy breaking and lack of long straights. Drivers won't need to worry about energy recovery, while active won't be activated, and on top of that, the new 2026 cars are even smaller than their predecessors.

Haas' Oliver Bearman thinks the race presents the perfect opportunity to get back to basics, telling GPblog: "Maybe they'll be a bit more fun to drive, that could be nice. No, I mean, I don't think there's really much opportunity to innovate in terms of energy in Monaco, just because the limits with the speed, the reductions with speed, it's very early in Monaco for obvious safety reasons. Yeah, I think it's just going to be a bit more like last year where we can just drive how we want, use the gears that we want, not have to do any silly lift-and-coast and these things. So I'm actually quite looking forward to it, it should be good.