Is Red Bull giving up on Max Verstappen's world title? Why this makes logical sense

Red Bull Racing is set to bring an update to the RB21 at the Austrian Grand Prix, with further refinements planned for the British Grand Prix a week later, according to Helmut Marko. This update appears crucial for Max Verstappen’s title hopes.

Marko has revealed that this could be the final upgrade package of 2025. If the update fails to close the gap and McLaren maintains a three-tenths advantage, then after Silverstone—or at the latest following the Belgian Grand Prix—Red Bull will decide to shift its full focus to 2026.

Finding the right balance is a challenge for many teams in 2025. Everyone still wants to maximize performance and develop their cars throughout the season, but 2026 is a crucial year for all, with brand-new regulations for both engines and chassis that could completely shake up the competitive order.

Smaller teams with little to gain in 2025 are already focusing their efforts on 2026. Williams and Sauber—set to become Audi in 2026—are fully committed to next year’s campaign. Teams like Alpine and Haas are also expected to quickly decide to shift their focus entirely to 2026.

Every team has a limited number of wind tunnel hours and CFD runs. Testing parts isn’t unlimited, so resources must be split carefully between 2025 and 2026 development. Prioritizing one season means compromising on the other. The budget cap further restricts spending on development and production, making these decisions even more critical.

Back in 2021, ahead of the 2022 regulation overhaul, Mercedes and Red Bull Racing battled fiercely until the final race. No team wants to give up a shot at the world title—after all, you never know what the future holds.

Red Bull has now reached a crucial point in the season. If the update works and Max Verstappen suddenly becomes a genuine contender for the world title again, Red Bull might be encouraged to continue developing the RB21 a bit longer.

This would come at the expense of the 2026 program, but within Red Bull, they can point to the successful 2022 campaign when the focus was fully on the championship.

However, there’s a downside. If the update fails to deliver and McLaren continues to hold a clear advantage, Red Bull will have to make a decision and shift their full focus to 2026. This would mean Verstappen has to make do with the RB21 as it stands and hope to stay close to the McLarens.

In this context, Verstappen’s position within 50 points of the leader is an advantage. It’s still possible for him to catch up—especially if the McLaren drivers continue to collide on track. But for Verstappen’s title hopes, the update must succeed if he wants to compete on equal footing with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris at every race.