Hamilton's Mexican GP pole comes with a warning history cannot ignore

Hamilton delivered a stunning final lap in qualifying at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, setting a 1:16.514 to beat George Russell by just 0.009 seconds. Charles Leclerc completed the top three, finishing 0.119 seconds behind his Ferrari teammate, while Max Verstappen qualified fourth before receiving a one-place grid penalty.

However, starting from the front of the grid in Mexico City comes with a particular challenge. The long run towards Turn 1 gives drivers starting further back an opportunity to benefit from the slipstream, potentially allowing them to overtake the pole-sitter before the first braking zone.

Since Formula 1 returned to Mexico in 2015, only five of the ten pole-sitters have completed the opening lap in first place. Nico Rosberg achieved the feat in 2015, followed by Hamilton himself in 2016, Charles Leclerc in 2019, Max Verstappen in 2022 and Lando Norris in 2025.

Remarkably, Verstappen was responsible for all five occasions on which the pole-sitter lost the lead during the opening lap. The Dutchman first achieved this in 2017, overtaking Sebastian Vettel, before repeating the feat against his then-Red Bull teammate Daniel Ricciardo in 2018.

Three years later, he produced another impressive start to take the lead from Valtteri Bottas, who started from pole position for Mercedes.

Verstappen continued that trend in 2023, passing Leclerc at the start, before doing the same to Carlos Sainz in 2024. On that occasion, however, the Spaniard recovered the lead and eventually secured victory for Ferrari.

The statistics underline the importance of the approximately 800-metre run to the first corner, where the slipstream can make defending the lead particularly difficult. Across the ten races held between 2015 and 2025, the pole-sitter retained first place after Lap 1 on just 50% of occasions.

For Hamilton, there is at least a positive precedent. The Briton successfully defended pole position at the start of the 2016 Mexican Grand Prix before going on to win the race for Mercedes.