Hamilton's engine penalty just got cheaper for Ferrari after McLaren's Baku blank

14:00, 28 Sep
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Ferrari left the Azerbaijan Grand Prix with no podium and plenty of questions about its pace. Even so, McLaren's zero-point afternoon in Baku means the Scuderia can now afford Lewis Hamilton's planned engine penalty more easily than it could a week ago.
Charles Leclerc finished fourth and Hamilton sixth, which added 20 points to Ferrari's total. McLaren scored nothing. Lando Norris was taken out in the Alpine collision at Turn 1, and Oscar Piastri dropped out of the points to 14th after locking up at the second Safety Car restart.
Ferrari is second in the constructors' standings on 378 points and McLaren is third on 306. Before Baku the gap was 52 points. It is now 72.

Why the numbers matter for Hamilton's penalty

Before the Baku weekend, GPblog reported in Hamilton set for separate engine penalty as Ferrari plans back-of-grid weekends for both drivers that Mexico City and Interlagos were the most likely races for the seven-time world champion to start from the back. The reason is that he is expected to need a fifth power unit.
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Under that plan, Ferrari would introduce the new units and then rotate two ADUO 2 specification engines through the remaining rounds. The team's priority was to spread the penalties across different weekends and protect its constructors' points.
When that plan was reported, McLaren was only 52 points behind. That left little room for a weekend where Hamilton failed to fight his way back into the points.
Baku gave Ferrari another 20 points of margin. It also showed how fast a lead can change: McLaren's bad day was worth 20 points to Ferrari in a single race.

Norris retirement stretches Hamilton's hold on third

The drivers' standings moved the same way. Hamilton arrived in Azerbaijan on 191 points, only five ahead of Norris. The eight points he scored for sixth took him to 199. Norris stays on 186 after his retirement, so the gap is now 13.
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That is crucial because a back-of-grid start is exactly the kind of weekend that could let Norris past. Leclerc is fifth on 179, 20 points behind Hamilton. Both championship fights now give Ferrari a bit more margin.
The gains from Baku are real, but they do not guarantee anything. Eight rounds remain, with 344 points still available in the constructors' championship and 200 in the drivers'. McLaren also has pressure from behind. Red Bull's double podium in Baku, with Max Verstappen second and Isack Hadjar third, cut McLaren's advantage in the fight for third to 43 points.

Leclerc's engine question still hangs over Ferrari

Before the weekend, Fred Vasseur had called Baku a circuit that "should be quite suitable" for a Leclerc engine change. In the end, Leclerc started from the front row and finished fourth.
Pre-Baku reports said both Ferrari drivers were believed to need a new power unit before the end of the season. Ferrari has given no timing for Hamilton's.
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The next round is the Bahrain Grand Prix, which moves to Sepang this weekend. Ferrari goes there with a 72-point buffer over McLaren instead of 52, which gives it more room to decide when the penalties come.

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