Lewis Hamilton is expected to start at back of the grid at a different race from teammate Charles Leclerc, with Mexico City and Interlagos identified as the most likely venues for the seven-time world champion's power unit penalty. Both
Ferrari drivers are believed to require a fresh power unit between now and the end of the season.
Leclerc's penalty is expected as early as Baku this weekend, as
GPblog reported, but Hamilton's situation is different, and the decision on introducing a fifth power unit on his car has not yet been definitively made.
With Hamilton now 101 points behind championship leader Kimi Antonelli after his brake failure retirement in Madrid, the prospect of taking a penalty and having two ADUO 2 units to rotate through the final races has become increasingly likely.
Tight margins leave Ferrari little room for error
Hamilton sits third in the drivers' standings on 191 points, just five ahead of Lando Norris. In the constructors' championship, Ferrari remains second with 358 points, while McLaren has climbed to 306, now just 52 points behind the Scuderia in the fight for second. A poor penalty weekend for Hamilton, one where he fails to carve through the field, could hand Norris third place in the drivers' table and give McLaren the opening it needs to challenge Ferrari's constructors' position.
Mexico, Interlagos, or Austin
Mexico City or Interlagos are the two places currently considered most logical for Hamilton's grid penalty, with Austin also a possibility if Ferrari wants to bring the change forward at the start of that triple-header.
Much will naturally depend on the mileage accumulated and the condition of the power units present in the seven-time world champion's pool over the coming weeks.
Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur has already publicly indicated that Baku 'should be quite suitable' for Leclerc's penalty, with the street circuit's extremely long final straight providing one of the clearest overtaking opportunities on the calendar.
No such signal has been given for Hamilton's timing. The aim for both drivers, once their fifth units are introduced, would be to rotate two ADUO 2 specification engines through the remaining rounds.
Ferrari's priority is to stagger the two penalties across different weekends and protect its constructors' points haul. Choosing which race to sacrifice for Hamilton means weighing his slim five-point cushion over Norris against the overtaking potential of each circuit, a calculation that could determine whether Ferrari finishes the 2026 season second or third.