Antonelli can't be crowned in Singapore, but Russell's DNF puts Austin in play as Hamilton keeps the title maths alive

Antonelli finished second in the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, and Russell failed to score. That moved Antonelli from 66 to 84 points clear of his Mercedes teammate. Russell gave his own verdict on his title chances, admitting his challenge was all but over.

After Sepang, Antonelli has 320 points. Russell has 236 and Lewis Hamilton has 214. Charles Leclerc is on 191, and Lando Norris and Max Verstappen have 188 each.

There are 183 points left. That is 175 from the seven remaining Grands Prix and eight from the Singapore Sprint, which is the final Sprint of the season.

Even a perfect weekend at Marina Bay would not settle it. If Antonelli won both the Sprint and the Grand Prix, he would score 33 points and reach 353. If Russell scored nothing in both, the gap would be 117 points. Six Grands Prix worth 150 points would still be left, so Russell would keep a mathematical route to the title.

Singapore is still the last round where a driver can score more than 25 points in a single weekend due to the sprint allocation. That makes it the best chance left for the leader to make a big gain.

If Antonelli wins the Singapore Sprint, the Singapore Grand Prix and the United States Grand Prix, that adds 58 points and takes him to 378. The biggest lead he could have after Austin is 142 points, with 125 still to play for. It means that leaving Texas 126 or more points ahead, he would clinch the title.

However, Russell is not the only driver who could stop that. Hamilton is 106 points behind, and he is one of five drivers who can still mathematically catch Antonelli.

If the Ferrari driver finished second in the Singapore Sprint and in both Grands Prix, he would score 43 points and reach 257.

In that case, even three Antonelli wins in a row would leave Hamilton 121 points behind after Austin. That is close enough to keep him in contention.

In practice, Antonelli needs to win everything and have both Russell and Hamilton score little or nothing to be crowned in Austin. If drivers finish level on points, the first tie-breaker is the number of wins.

However, Antonelli does not need his rivals to have bad results. Russell can reach a maximum of 419 points, so another 100 points would win Antonelli the title regardless of Russell's results. That would put him on 420.

A total of 133 points are left for second places and 111 for third places. That means Antonelli could finish anywhere on the podium in every remaining race and Sprint and still be champion, even if Russell won every race.

The calendar could still change the numbers. Qatar and Abu Dhabi are still on the schedule. But if the season were cut to 22 races, Antonelli would only need 75 more points instead of 100, and Austin would still be the earliest date he could clinch the title.