"Qualifying was all about Max's first run in Q2 on the medium tyres. In that he was two tenths slower than Lewis, and that was the decisive moment. On Friday, Max was a second faster than Valtteri Bottas on the medium tyre, but then the track got faster and faster and Max did more laps," Windsor said.
According to the analyst, Red Bull seems to be struggling to adapt to the rising temperatures in the afternoon. "That run on the mediums didn't give them the security they needed to do the second run on the mediums as well. Mercedes did, and Valtteri made it to Q3 by a margin of a tenth, so it was very close."
Difference lies in new Pirelli rear tyre according to Windsor
"But Red Bull, where Sergio Perez was half a second to seven tenths slower than Max, couldn't afford to take risks with Max." So, according to Windsor, it came down to the pace being driven on the mediums. "Max didn't quite understand why he suddenly had no grip and even drove second lap on the mediums, which is unusual," he said.
"On a track that should suit Red Bull well, Mercedes now has the faster car, and it's all down to the new, stiffer construction of the rear tyre. This is something Red Bull will be having conversations about behind the scenes with Pirelli during the summer break," Windsor said.