Why this rule tweak might give Verstappen the edge over McLaren in Qatar

The Qatar round, following the double McLaren disqualification in last weekend’s Las Vegas GP, becomes a pivotal moment in the fight for the Drivers’ Championship. While Lando Norris still holds a considerable lead, he can’t afford to rest on his laurels against a Max Verstappen who is in exceptional form.

Losail will also host the final sprint weekend of the season, offering additional points that could tip the title battle one way or the other. Added to that is this year’s reintroduced special rule requiring a mandatory double pit stop, which could further shake up the competitive order.

The MCL39 has stood out all season for its exceptional tyre management during races, particularly in the closing stages of each stint, when the gap between McLaren and the rest of the field becomes more pronounced compared to when everyone is on fresh tyres.

In this context, a mandatory two-stop format for all drivers will allow everyone to push to the maximum without worrying about tyre degradation, unlike what we’ve seen in the recent past at Losail.

This means Verstappen could have one less problem to deal with on a track that, on paper, should highlight the strengths of the MCL39—though the RB21 has still made significant gains across the board since the summer break.

The British driver has undeniably stepped up since the summer break, showing he can respond to adversity—like what happened at Zandvoort, when the championship seemed to be slipping away to his teammate.

Thanks to strong weekends and consistently high-level performances, Norris clawed his way back to the top of the standings, consolidating his lead in Las Vegas—before the disqualification hit like a hammer.

Now, without that cushion of points providing an indirect psychological safety net, knowing he could afford a slip-up, he will have to prove he has truly grown—and that he’s capable of passing the ultimate test: Max Verstappen.

All season, the Papaya team has insisted on treating both drivers equally. But now, with Verstappen’s threat looming larger than ever, it’s likely the team will have to make a bold decision and back a single driver—a choice that would inevitably come at Piastri’s expense.

The Australian is now tied for second in the championship and currently looks the least likely of the three to claim the title, while Norris, despite the disqualification, still holds a comfortable lead.