The chilling F1 pattern that spells worry for Norris in Abu Dhabi

Norris currently leads the drivers’ standings by 12 points over Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen. His McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is a further four points behind. However, a repeated pattern in the history of Formula 1 foretells a worrying sign for the McLaren driver.

If history is anything to go by, Norris could walk away from Abu Dhabi without the drivers’ title.

Through the sport’s 75-year history, on several occasions where more than three drivers have headed into the final race of the season still in contention for the drivers’ crown, the championship leader has failed to win the title.

In 1981, when the F1 title went to the season finale at the Caesars Palace Grand Prix, three drivers – Carlos Reutemann, Nelson Piquet, and French driver Jacques Laffite – went into the Las Vegas race all with a shot at the title. However, come the chequered flag, Reutemann, who had led the championship heading into the race, would lose the title to Piquet after failing to finish ahead of the Brazilian.

1983 tells another story that signals a warning for Norris. This time, it was Alain Prost in his Renault losing the championship to Piquet again in the final race of the season. Prost led the championship into the South African Grand Prix, two points ahead of Piquet, with Ferrari driver René Arnoux also in contention. Engine troubles for both Prost and Arnoux meant Piquet walked away with the championship in Kyalami.

1986 also saw this worrying pattern continue, this time with British driver Nigel Mansell leading the championship ahead of Prost and Piquet heading into the final race in Australia. The Williams driver was on course to claim the drivers’ crown until a tyre puncture, which caused suspension damage, derailed his race entirely. Prost, who won the race ahead of his McLaren teammate, would be crowned champion that night.

It took a while before Formula 1 would see a three-way title fight again, but the 2007 campaign delivered another dramatic instalment. This time, two McLaren drivers – Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso – were pitted against Kimi Raikkonen.

Hamilton led the standings into the final race, with Alonso following and Raikkonen behind the duo. The British driver, who needed to finish the race ahead of both rivals to be crowned champion, failed to do so, allowing Raikkonen, who won the race, to snatch the drivers’ title from both McLaren drivers.

2010 was the most recent example of this pattern, where the championship leader heading into the final race failed to win the title. Four drivers were in contention: Alonso in his Ferrari, leading the standings, followed by Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel, and Hamilton.

Alonso appeared primed to win the title; however, a strategic error from the Ferrari pit wall, opting to pit Alonso early to cover Webber, left him stuck behind Renault's Vitaly Petrov for the remainder of the race. His seventh-place finish, with Webber in eighth, allowed Vettel to overtake both and claim the championship.

It was the first time Vettel had led the championship all season. Verstappen, who edged Piastri to second place in Qatar, will now have his sights set on replicating this feat come race Sunday in Abu Dhabi.

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