Verstappen may give Red Bull an advantage in long runs; a surprising rival emerges

After the drivers were able to get a feel for the new cars around the Monaco circuit—under the current regulations—there was an opportunity in FP2 to work on long runs. As usual, it’s difficult to draw conclusions from that data, since it’s unknown which engine modes, fuel loads, and run plans the teams opted for. It was also difficult for them to plan things properly on Friday, given the interruptions.

Isack Hadjar caused a red flag in FP1 with a heavy crash, after which the session was halted for some time because his car had to be craned off the track and the debris cleared. In FP2, Lando Norris's car also broke down, which threw some teams’ plans into disarray. At McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, no long runs were completed. However, at Red Bull, Verstappen managed it.

Verstappen felt good in the car, and that was evident in FP2. He clicked off some laps like a metronome, likely gathering valuable data for his team. He did his long run on the soft tyre in the second half of the session. The only other two drivers to complete long runs were Sergio Perez and Nico Hülkenberg. The Mexican was just getting into his program when he came to a halt with a smoking car.

Hülkenberg, in his Audi, came closest to Verstappen by just over a tenth. The German was on the medium tyre. Verstappen caught the best track window, as he managed to hold a steady pace for seven consecutive laps. Hülkenberg was held up on his second lap, but was able to maintain his pace for four laps in a row afterwards. Audi has looked competitive since FP1.

On a circuit like Monaco, you can question how important long runs even are, since Saturday’s qualifying is the biggest hurdle of the weekend. It’s all about a good starting position, and on Sunday few overtaking opportunities are expected once again, unless a heavy rain shower arrives or a major crash completely shuffles the order.

After Friday's running, Verstappen could see that Ferrari still held the upper hand, but the gap appeared far from insurmountable. The Dutchman has given Red Bull plenty to analyse overnight, with the Milton Keynes-based team aiming to unlock more performance ahead of Saturday and take the fight to Ferrari from the outset of FP3.

However, Red Bull are not focusing solely on the Scuderia. Mercedes and McLaren remain firmly on their radar, although assessing their true pace is difficult after a scrappy day for both teams.

Mercedes had emerged as the benchmark on recent race weekends, particularly during Friday long-run simulations, making Red Bull's strong showing something of a surprise. McLaren, meanwhile, lost valuable running when Norris retired during FP2, leaving the Woking-based outfit unable to complete a full race-simulation programme with one of its drivers.