Data show: Red Bull falls back again in the development war after strong updates

In 2026, the top four are the same top four as under the previous regulations. In the prior period, Red Bull was initially the strongest team, after which McLaren took over. Mercedes and Ferrari were behind, but never far. In 2026 the top four remains intact, but the balance of power has changed.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that Mercedes is the benchmark this year. Only in Hungary were the pole position and thus the fastest lap of the weekend not taken by a Mercedes driver. At all the other ten circuits, Mercedes was the fastest team over a single lap.

Things are interesting behind them. Ferrari has already won two races, McLaren one, and Red Bull also seems to be getting closer to Mercedes. A good moment, then, to see how much the teams have actually closed the gap to Mercedes and which of them has done so the most consistently.

In the first part of the 2026 F1 season, Red Bull proves to be the weakest of the four top teams. In the first three Grands Prix, the fastest Red Bull averages 0.97s behind the man on pole position. Ferrari and McLaren are also behind, but not by as large a margin as Red Bull.

Red Bull makes optimal use of the break caused by the cancellation of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In the races following the break, Red Bull significantly reduces the deficit. From Miami through Austria, the average gap to pole position suddenly drops to just 0.25s. Max Verstappen even misses pole in Monaco by less than a tenth. On various circuits, Red Bull shows clear progress.

In the last three races before the summer break, however, Red Bull shows a decline again. From Silverstone through Hungary, the average gap is 0.49s. That still halves the gap compared to the start of the season, but it isn’t close enough to mount a serious bid for pole position.

The Max Verstappen factor must also be taken into account. As the best driver on the F1 grid, you can assume he extracts that little bit extra from the car. In eleven qualifying sessions, he has also been the faster of the two Red Bulls.The gap to Mercedes is certainly a bit larger without a Verstappen.

Still, Red Bull has proven to Verstappen that it can make progress with the RB22. The gap to Mercedes has been halved, and the updates are working. The question now is whether the final step can be made, especially since nothing on the power unit side is allowed to be improved.

McLaren is viewed as a team performing better than Red Bull in 2026, but in qualifying that difference is actually modest. Over the first half of the season, McLaren is on average 0.430s slower than pole, Red Bull 0.512s. Again, you can argue that Verstappen makes the difference look smaller, but McLaren is in any case not much better.

While a few updates seemed to help McLaren mainly in the race, there has not yet been significant growth during 2026. It started the season with a deficit of just under half a second and that has remained so throughout the season. McLaren peaks much more, which means that on some circuits it is suddenly very close, or even managed to take the first non-Mercedes pole at the Hungaroring.

However, there has been no structural progress at McLaren so far. Compared to Mercedes, it has had the same gap over the entire first half of the season. Hungary was a positive outlier, but Zandvoort, Monza, and Madrid must prove whether that won’t remain a single exception.

While the perception around McLaren is that they are on a strong surge, Ferrari is working in the shadows on the real climb. The data shows it is no coincidence Ferrari has already won twice. The qualifying data indicates there is one team making structural progress relative to Mercedes, and that is Ferrari.

Whereas Red Bull made a good step and McLaren alternates between highs and lows, Ferrari is steadily closing in on Mercedes. Early in the season, Ferrari averaged about 0.596s behind Mercedes in qualifying. Over the season, that gap has decreased to 0.233s. A weaker day at Spa nudges the average in the final part of the first half a bit higher – 0.240s – but the small gaps at Silverstone and the Hungaroring speak for themselves.

Ferrari’s problem still lies on Sundays. The drivers and the team are making too many mistakes, which together have simply cost too many points. Still, Ferrari is Mercedes’ closest challenger in the championship for good reason, and Lewis Hamilton is second in the standings for good reason. One more step will be needed to challenge Mercedes for pole race after race; that has not yet been achieved in 2026.

It’s clear that Mercedes dominated the first half of 2026. No underlying data is needed for that. Mercedes won 8 of 11 races and took 10 of 11 pole positions. Yet the qualifying data shows that the competition is getting closer.

Red Bull, after a big step forward, has had to pause. McLaren shows peaks, but also deep troughs. Ferrari may be Mercedes’ biggest rival, but it will need to find a bit more speed and, above all, eliminate the mistakes.