F1 Tech | Weather set to have a huge impact on the Las Vegas GP

The wet qualifying for the Las Vegas Grand Prix was thrilling and unexpected, due to the very difficult conditions drivers experienced on track. The slippery tarmac, together with the cold temperatures overnight, made it extremely difficult to correctly warm up the tyres, leading to drivers like Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli getting knocked out in Q1.

Norris managed to get pole once again thanks to the phenomenal drive on the intermediates tyres in Q3. Max Verstappen will line up alongside the McLaren driver on the front row.

The weather for the race will probably have a huge impact on the final result, as the Dutchman probably prefers a dry race, while the Briton hopes for the same conditions experienced in qualifying. Let’s try to understand why.

McLaren showed a very different performance between FP1 and FP2: during the first session, in fact, the team adopted two different set-ups between Piastri and Norris to gather data and understand which one worked better on the Las Vegas track.

Piastri adopted an extreme low-downforce rear wing that had the trailing edge of the DRS flap trimmed, to reduce drag as much as possible. To balance this very aggressive solution, the team also trimmed the top flap on the front wing as well, to make the car more balanced. On the other hand, Norris used a more conventional set-up, with the same front wing used by Piastri but with the Monza spec rear wing, which provided a bit more stability in traction phase.

Both drivers, however, massively struggled: due to the very low level of grip and downforce on the front axle, they weren’t able to correctly warm up the front axle, losing a lot of time in the qualifying simulations as well as in the long runs, where the tyres suffered from graining.

As a result, the team adopted a drastic solution for FP2: they put aside the trimmed rear wing version used by Piastri and adopted the same Monza spec on both cars, matched with the standard front wing, to provide more downforce on the front axle and make the front-end more precise, thus reducing the understeering and prevent graining. The MCL39 completely changed its behaviour for the second session: it managed to show off a very strong performance in the second sector, thanks to the great mechanical grip and the good level of downforce provided by the Venturi channels.

For FP3, the mixed conditions experienced in the first 40 minutes of the session forced all drivers to use the intermediate tyres, before switching to soft tyres as the track dried up. McLaren demonstrated to have a great superiority on the intermediates, thanks to the MCL39’s ability to warm up the tyres well and keep them in the operating window despite the very cold temperatures and slippery Las Vegas asphalt.

This strength also allowed Norris to dominate in qualifying: despite not being the quickest on the wet tyres in Q1 and Q2, the Briton managed to get into the rhythm, before expressing McLaren’s fullest potential in Q3, when all teams switched to the intermediate tyres.

The great mechanical grip generated by the suspensions and the chassis allowed Norris and Piastri to generate enough mechanical grip on the tyres to bring them up to their operating window, consequently gaining massive amount of time to their rivals in the first and second sector (Norris was up by almost a second on Verstappen’s time at the end of second sector during his last lap in Q3).

All these factors allowed him to conquer a phenomenal pole, which was highly unexpected at the eve of the weekend, due to the very low downforce level required by the Las Vegas Strip Circuit. For both McLaren drivers’ race, the weather will have a big impact: as already seen today, the wet conditions could highlight the MCL39’s strengths, allowing Piastri and Norris to dominate the race. On the other hand, if the track is dry — and there’s currently a 0% chance of rain — then their advantage will significantly reduce, as graining could appear on the front tyres, putting them in a bit of trouble.

As for Ferrari, they adopted a very similar approach to the McLaren’s one: due to the lower grip conditions of FP1, the team decided to use a medium-low downforce rear wing spec on both cars (the same rear wing used in Spa-Francorchamps), before switching to the more extreme Monza low-downforce rear wing for FP2 to take advantage of the track evolution.

In both sessions, however, the SF-25 showed very good performance, both in the slow-speed sections and on the straights, proof that the team found the perfect window to express the maximum potential offered from the car.

For FP3, they kept the same extreme low-downforce rear wing used in FP2, which provided higher top speeds in dry conditions. However, with the rain falling hard between the last session of practice and the beginning of qualifying, the team decided to switch back to the higher rear wing solution tested in FP1 on both cars. This provided more downforce and thus a more stable car under traction, a crucial area to gain lap time in wet weather conditions.

However, Ferrari’s poor performance in qualifying exposed one of the car’s main limitations: as already underlined many times this season, the SF-25 still generates a very low level of mechanical grip from the suspension system compared to Red Bull and McLaren, which inevitably translates into slower speeds through low-speed sections. Mechanical grip turns out to be fundamental in the rain as well, as it generates heat into the wet compounds, especially on such a stop-and-go layout, where temperature can be generated either from the brakes or from the grip that generates between the tyre and the asphalt.

The consequence of this poor performance was a disastrous result for the Scuderia: Hamilton got knocked out in Q1, qualifying last, while Leclerc finished the session in P9, a very different result to the one expected after Friday’s positive performance.

Moving now on to analyse the performance of Red Bull Racing, Friday seemed a bit disappointing: while adopting higher engine modes than usual, the RB21 still demonstrated quite nervous in traction and mid-corner, where Verstappen was experiencing a bit of understeering. For this event the team adopted the same low downforce rear wing used in Spa-Francorchamps and Baku, matched with a trimmed front wing to minimise drag as much as possible.

The lack of mechanical grip also had a big impact on tyres, as Verstappen was unable to generate enough heat into the front axle, which translated into a tedious understeering in the second sector, characterised by a series of slow speed corners and chicanes.

Despite all these aggressive solutions, Verstappen managed to finish FP2 only in ninth place, proving that the set-up was still not great especially from the mechanical point of view, as he was losing a lot of time in the middle sector compared to Ferrari and McLaren.

Thanks to the work done overnight, the RB21’s mechanical balance drastically improved during Saturday’s FP3, as Verstappen managed to finish the session in P2 just a few hundredths behind Russell in P1. The balance through the slow speed sections drastically improved compared to Friday, without major changes to the front and rear wing specs.

This improved feeling had a positive impact on performance in qualifying: the RB21 seemed to be the quickest car on the full wet tyres in Q1 and Q2, thanks to the great grip generated by the fine-tuned mechanical set-up. However, the Dutchman seemed to struggle a little bit more on the intermediates in Q3, taking multiple laps to correctly warm up the fronts. This caused him to have just two proper clean and fast laps in the last minutes of the session, but he still managed to get a phenomenal P2.

As already explained previously, Red Bull hopes for dry conditions for the race, as this could allow Verstappen to exploit the RB21’s great top speed and tyre management on such low downforce layout, like already happened in Monza and Baku.

Last but not least, Mercedes had a very positive Friday as well, with Antonelli finishing FP2 just a couple of thousandths behind Norris: as already seen during the last season, the W16 demonstrated to have a very good top speed and traction around the Las Vegas Street Circuit, two crucial elements that play a key role in gaining lap time over competitors.

However, with the wet conditions experienced on Saturday, some big limitations of the car emerged: the W16 struggled to keep the rear tyres in the right operating window during the lap, while the front tyres were cold. As a consequence, both Russell and Antonelli struggled to keep the car on track, with the latter getting knocked out in Q1.

The Briton, instead, managed to keep it cool and qualified in P4, a very good starting spot especially if the race turns out to be dry: as with Red Bull, in fact, also Mercedes hopes that the race is dry, as they could start to show some of their pace in such cold conditions.

In conclusion, one of the most unpredictable and exciting weekends of the whole season is unfolding, as Verstappen, Piastri, Norris and Russell will probably be in contention for victory on Sunday. A lot will also depend on the conditions and on the tyre wear, which also had a huge impact on the outcome of previous Las Vegas Grand Prix editions.

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