Max Verstappen holds key to Kimi Antonelli's F1 title in Mexico

Antonelli arrives with 365 points. That is 123 more than Russell and 124 more than Hamilton and he could also be crowned with 10th place if Russell does not win, or without scoring any points if neither Russell nor Hamilton takes victory. That puts Verstappen, who is out of the title fight himself, right at the centre of the weekend.

Verstappen has won five times at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023. That makes it his most successful venue. In 2017, Hamilton sealed the 2017 world championship title with a recovery drive to ninth after an early clash with title rival Sebastian Vettel helped Verstappen win.

A year later the same thing happened. Hamilton finished fourth while Verstappen won, and became only the third ever driver, behind Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael Schumacher, to claim five world championships. "I always believed we could win this championship, but it was one of the toughest," Hamilton said afterwards.

Mexico has a long record of crowning champions. The previous winners were John Surtees in 1964, Denny Hulme in 1967, Graham Hill in 1968, and Lewis Hamilton, the only one on the list to win twice, in 2017 and 2018.

The twist is that Antonelli expects Verstappen to be his main opponent next year. Speaking beside the Dutchman after qualifying in Austin, the Mercedes driver said: "I think it will be amazing, of course. You know, Max is at an incredible level, and it's very tough to beat him, especially when he's got the momentum." Bernie Ecclestone shares that view. He told Blick: "Fans can already look forward to 2027 when the impeccable and super-fast sportsman Antonelli competes against Verstappen."

Verstappen's record at this track was built with different cars. A GPblog simulation, explained in Verstappen could be much slower in Mexico: Predictions produce unusual lap time, points to a qualifying lap of around 1:18.155, compared with his 1:16.070 from last year. Red Bull's starts are another concern. On their causes, team principal Laurent Mekies said: "It's the engine, it's the gearbox, it's the clutch, it's many things."

Verstappen is cautious himself. "We have to go to Mexico, again, high altitude, everything will run super hot," he said. If Red Bull do fall short, a win for Russell or Hamilton becomes more likely. Hamilton won here in 2016 and 2019, and Russell has three wins this season. Even then, the title only goes to Brazil if Russell wins and Antonelli finishes 10th or lower, or if Hamilton wins and Antonelli fails to score.