Why sacking Liam Lawson would be unprecedented - even for ruthless Red Bull
Photo: Red Bull Content Pool
Ben Hunt is an award-winning motorsport journalist with over two decades of experience in Formula 1 and international media. As a former editor-in-chief and bestselling author, he delivers in-depth analysis and strategic insight from the highest level of the sport.
Racing Bulls CEO Peter Bayer used Red Bull's junior history to explain why Liam Lawson's seat is not safe. Looking closely at that history, and it shows Faenza has dropped its leading scorer before, just never one with numbers anywhere near Lawson's.
Lawson heads to Brazil ninth in the championship and on 83 points while his teammate Arvid Lindblad has 38, and Racing Bulls sit fifth in the constructors' championship on 108. Lawson's total includes three races at Red Bull, where he stood in for the injured Isack Hadjar at Zandvoort, Monza and Madrid while Yuki Tsunoda took his Racing Bulls seat and scored one point. It means that Lawson scored 69 of the team's 108 points in a Racing Bulls car; that is close to two thirds of the total.
Bayer points to Red Bull's talent pipeline
Speaking to ORF after the Mexico City Grand Prix, Bayer agreed with the paddock view that Lawson had earned his seat. In the same breath, he reminded everyone what Faenza exists to do, and he praised Nikola Tsolov after the Bulgarian's FP1 debut. The final call rests with team principal Alan Permane.
At the same time, our role, as the leading developer of talent in Formula 1, is to continuously bring new drivers through. We've brought 22 drivers into Formula 1, including the likes of Sebastian Vettel, Max Verstappen and others.- Peter Bayer, Racing Bulls CEO, to ORF
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That list of 22 also includes the drivers the system let go. Two of them are the clearest precedents for what Lawson is facing now.
Alguersuari and Vergne led Toro Rosso and were still dropped
In 2011, Jaime Alguersuari scored 26 of Toro Rosso's 41 points and finished 14th in the championship, ahead of teammate Sebastien Buemi on 15. Red Bull replaced both of them with Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne for 2012, and neither Alguersuari nor Buemi raced in F1 again.
Three years later it was Vergne's turn. He scored 22 of the team's 30 points in 2014, finished 13th and beat rookie Daniil Kvyat by 14 points. He lost his seat to a 17-year-old Max Verstappen anyway. "Despite a good season and 22 points, I'll not drive anymore for Toro Rosso in 2015," Vergne said at the time.
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Lawson's numbers sit in a different league
Neither precedent comes close. Alguersuari and Vergne were dropped from 14th and 13th in the standings. Lawson is ninth, 'best of the rest' behind the big four, and his 83 points are more than three times what either man had at the end of his final season. Other exits had a simpler explanation: Kvyat had scored only five points in 2017 when Toro Rosso replaced him with Pierre Gasly.
That is why Lawson's case puts the conflict Bayer described in such sharp terms. Tsolov is second in Formula 2 and fighting future Haas driver Rafael Camara for the title.
If Permane picks him, Lawson would face a spell out of F1 because there are almost no other seats open for 2027. Jenson Button has already made the results case for keeping him, as GPblog reported.
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