Verstappen is set to line up P20 after he spun out onto the gravel in Q1, failing to set a lap time but allowed to start ahead of Carlos Sainz and Lance Stroll despite all three drivers exceeding F1’s ‘107%’ qualifying rule.

Weather is unlikely to be as big a factor as it was at last season’s season opener, which was won by McLaren’s Lando Norris in treacherous, mixed conditions. In 2026, only a high chance of cloud cover, 80% according to Weather.com, could play with track conditions.

According to Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi, speaking on the tyre supplier’s website, performance analysis at the end of Saturday’s sessions indicates that a one-stop approach is “feasible.”

In that case, the medium-hard strategy, with a pit window of lap 20-26, is fastest on paper, but Pirelli note an aggressive soft tyre start could be made possible with a switch to hard tyres between laps 15-21.

In his pacier Red Bull, perhaps Max Verstappen will opt for the reverse strategy (hards-mediums/softs), while the back of the grid could go for a two-stop strategy.

Speaking of the two-stop, always beware the Safety Car, there have been six between the last three races, while Pirelli note a historical 75% probability we’ll see another in 2026.

Speaking yesterday, Maresfuschi said: “It should be noted that the time lost in the pit lane for a tyre change is minimal at around 21 seconds, and Melbourne's history of race neutralisations indicates a 75% probability of a safety car.