Analysis | Why AlphaTauri did not choose Liam Lawson

For Japanese fans, the announcement that Yuki Tsunoda will continue to race for AlphaTauri in 2024 was the best start to the qualifying day at Suzuka. Daniel Ricciardo was also confirmed for next season by Red Bull Racing's sister team, leaving Liam Lawson - currently causing a furore as a substitute - to settle for a reserve role once again. A decision that was hard to digest by many F1 fans, but explainable from Red Bull's point of view.

Of course, it is a shame that there is no place on the '24 grid for a talent like Lawson (assuming he would not loaned to Williams). In the nearly four Grand Prix the New Zealander has driven as Ricciardo's replacement, he has shown he is an asset to the sport. Moreover, he seems to be a quick learner: in his debut weekend at Zandvoort, Lawson made an unnecessary slide, but by now he is a more than formidable rival to Tsunoda, who has been competing for the Italian team for almost four seasons.

Lawson better than Nyck de Vries?

Yes, Lawson is doing well, but it should certainly not be underestimated how much the AT04 has improved in recent months. The car is in no way comparable to the car with which Nyck de Vries fought a constant and unfair battle in the first half of the season. So comparing Lawson 1-to-1 with De Vries is anything but fair. Red Bull will certainly not have been blinded by the New Zealander's results either, in deciding not to choose him in 2024. That would be scoreboard journalism, although the results do give a nice indication.

Helmut Marko and co. decided to go ahead with Tsunoda and the soon-to-be-fit Ricciardo: a relatively young driver - though he is thus entering his fourth year - with an older driver next to him. In the past, AlphaTauri (or Toro Rosso) emphatically profiled itself as a training team for Red Bull, and seen in that light, both drivers would no longer suit the team. But the training philosophy has since been (partly) abandoned.

AlphaTauri has become a full-fledged team that no longer sees good results as a nice bonus. With Ricciardo, the Faenza-based team expects to have a driver who will be spared from rookie mistakes and - if the car has the qualities to do so - will be able to gather points structurally and without much damage.

How good is Ricciardo still?

It is a fact that Ricciardo did not always impress in his seasons at Renault and McLaren. But he is nonetheless the driver who at the time was the first to give Renault an important podium. Ricciardo is also the only one to bring McLaren a win in a decade. In Red Bull's eyes, a driver like Ricciardo's qualities cannot simply be lost. Moreover, the Australian is a serious option to relieve Sergio Perez alongside Max Verstappen in '25. Then again, it will be important for Ricciardo to keep getting racing mileage.

There are few signs that Yuki Tsunoda is ever going to get a chance at Red Bull Racing. In the longer term, his future also seems to lie outside the energy drink giant's teams. Indeed, Tsunoda is a protégé of Honda, which currently supplies engines to the Red Bull teams. From 2026, there will be a Honda power unit in the back of the Aston Martins and it is expected that Tsunoda will also make the switch in that case. In the meantime, AlphaTauri can put to good use the millions that Honda transfers annually to keep Tsunoda in that seat. Finally, Tsunoda and Ricciardo are ideal as marketing tools. One is from Japan, a rich country of more than 125 million people. The other is, yes, Daniel Ricciardo. A signboard for Formula 1 as a whole.

Lawson can't tick enough boxes

Liam Lawson does not have it all. He is not the experienced driver who can be Max Verstappen's ideal partner at Red Bull Racing in 2025. Indeed, the past has repeatedly shown how it ends with young talents put alongside the, as of now, two-time world champion too early. He is also not the man to take home millions in sponsorship money. Lawson comes from humble New Zealand, totally of no interest to big sponsors. And whether he is really as good as it seems now, at least if you compare him to Nyck de Vries earlier this season? Possibly, but it is not a certainty.

Lawson is a young driver, whose performance you have to wait and see when he no longer has the luxury of acting as someone's replacement without pressure. Lawson absolutely does deserve a place in F1, but unfortunately for him, he ticked too few boxes on AlphaTauri's wish list for 2024.