Verstappen a step closer to a 'simple' departure from Red Bull Racing

Reportedly, Verstappen has an option in his contract (which runs until the end of 2028, ed.) that allows him to break his agreement if he is not in the top two in the championship at the start of the summer break. Since last weekend in Spain, it almost certain that the Dutchman can no longer be leading after the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Verstappen currently trails Andrea Kimi Antonelli by 101 points. With four Grands Prix and a Sprint to go and a maximum of 108 points available, the Italian Mercedes driver is nearly out of reach — even after his DNF at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Verstappen is sixty points behind Lewis Hamilton, who is currently classified second. George Russell is third, 51 points ahead of the four-time world champion.

It is possible for Verstappen to climb to P2 in the coming weeks before the summer break. Realistically, it’s virtually impossible. Verstappen would need to win multiple Grands Prix, while Hamilton, Russell, Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri would have to suffer significant setbacks. It will likely be clear well before the Hungarian Grand Prix — the finale of the first part of the F1 season — that Verstappen will not be in the top two.

In that case, the clause feared by Red Bull Racing can be activated. Whether Verstappen will actually do so is not a certainty. His intention has always been to see out his contract with Red Bull. That is why the word ‘simple’ is in quotation marks when discussing the use of the clause. But the Dutchman does want to see sporting progress at the Austrian team. A year like this one — in which he more often falls short of Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren than beats them on pure pace — is not something he wants to experience again.

Last weekend in Barcelona, Red Bull announced that for the next Grand Prix in Austria they will introduce a major upgrade package. Verstappen’s RB22 should then be lighter, which ought to deliver a notable lap time gain. At the same time, the competition is not standing still. The changes Ferrari made in Barcelona, for instance, have given the team a significant step forward. The Scuderia have much more in the pipeline, and Mercedes and McLaren are also expected to bring further upgrades soon.

Moreover, Red Bull has the disadvantage of being unable to add performance to the power unit, whereas all competing engine manufacturers can. Already, the Red Bull Ford is losing out to Mercedes and Ferrari, even though the internal combustion engine (ICE) of the Austrians is, according to the data, the best. But an engine is much more than just an ICE.

Meanwhile, the leadership at Red Bull Racing is under great strain. Nothing would please them more than to see Verstappen stay and even extend for many years. But Verstappen is not making such a decision at this moment, as was reportedly communicated last week in Austria to the top of the parent company. For now, Verstappen is keeping all options open, including activating the top-two clause.