Inside the decade-long story of Verstappen and Mercedes

The four-time Formula 1 world champion appears to be on the market with Red Bull struggling and talks with McLaren confirmed.

However, right now it appears that he’s most likely to stay at Red Bull or take a sabbatical year.

The lack of a Mercedes option is very unusual, given their public flirting since 2024, but plenty has changed since then.

There has been zero oxygen given around Max and Mercedes for 2027, and that’s despite both of their current drivers being on expiring contracts.

George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are both signed until the end of 2026, which on paper looks like an invite for Verstappen.

But that rumour, for once, is dying a death, and GPBlog recounts how a relationship that started over a decade ago is now on ice.

Long before any rumours of a Mercedes switch came about, their CEO and team principal, Toto Wolff, revealed how Verstappen could have started his career with them.

Speaking in 2019, he said: “I met Jos and Max in 2014, talking about joining Mercedes, and that is what they wanted. But we didn't have a seat, because we had Nico (Rosberg) and we had Lewis (Hamilton). What I offered was a free seat in Formula 2, and a guarantee for Formula 1 the following year. And if we weren't able to do Formula 1, then he was free to go. And then Helmut chipped in and obviously gave them the seat."

Later that year, the rumblings first started with in the midst of their eight-year record constructors’ title-winning streak.

17/4/19: "We had quite a laugh about it all three of us," Wolff said of the rumours. "I haven't got Max's number and I've never spoken to him on the phone. As Max rightly said I've known Jos for a long time and I would consider him a friend. We talk about babies and go-karting and when do we put our babies in a go-kart together and which team are we going to set up. There is no talking about Max nor his contract. For the right reasons, Max is very committed to the Honda/Red Bull situation. We are committed to our drivers and we are not planning to engage in any sort of discussions and nor are Jos or Max, so I don't know where that came from."

However, that famous ‘friendship’ was broken in 2021 during one of the most intense title fights the sport has ever seen.

Verstappen edged Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the Abu Dhabi season finale, but it was in Silverstone in July when things went nuclear.

Hamilton and Verstappen collided at Copse during the race, sending the latter into the wall at 51G and into an ambulance.

Speaking soon after, on 23/7/21, Jos said: "You don't celebrate your victory with such euphoria if your colleague is still in hospital. And as for Toto Wolff, we've had good contact for years. I think everyone knows why. He didn't contact us yesterday. Now he doesn't have to call either.”

Later in May 2022, Jos confirmed they were back on speaking terms after they were spotted chatting in the paddock.

Jos on 3/5/22: “That was the first contact I've had with Toto since Silverstone 2021.”

The next turn in the relationship came soon after Hamilton announced he was heading to Ferrari.

The seven-time champion made the announcement before the 2024 season, but he wouldn’t be moving to Italy until the 2025 campaign.

That gave Wolff the whole year to line up a replacement, and he made it clear Verstappen was the stand-out choice.

Wolff on 10/3/24: "I would love to have him [Max]. But firstly, we need to sort out our car. We owe it to George and Lewis to improve the car and give them equipment that is good before dreaming about the future.

Wolff on 27/3/24: "It's a kind of relationship that needs to happen at a certain stage, but we don't know when.”

Also before that 2024 campaign, allegations of inappropriate conduct against Red Bull team principal Christian Horner emerged in the media.

Horner denied any wrongdoing and was cleared by two internal investigations. Yet key team members left, including car design legend Adrian Newey in May.

With Red Bull’s performance also dropping off, Wolff continued to flirt.

Wolff on 25/5/24: "Max is not going to get in a car that is not competitive, and at the moment we are not competitive enough to lure a world champion. Competing for a podium or for wins, certainly that would make our pitch a little bit easier. But I completely understand, and I said in the media that if I were Max, if the car continues to perform like it is, then he has maybe an easier time to win a championship next year [at his current team]. Having said that, you can see now how McLaren has come up. So yes, I'm optimistic. Maybe one day our paths will cross, and it will be very successful. And until then, we just have to work on our car and concentrate on our team's performance."

Wolff on 23/6/24: "No driver decision has been made [aside from Russell]. I said we want to keep this decision as long as possible because who knows? Who knows what happens?"

Wolff on 28/6/24: "As I keep saying, we will keep our empty seat open as long as possible. The most important thing is to make our car faster. If the car is fast, fast drivers will also want to drive for us.”

Yet all that talk ended in August when Mercedes announced they were signing Antonelli for the 2025 season.

Wolff on 31/8/24: "These two [Russell and Antonelli] are the future. They have been and will be Mercedes drivers. And therefore, we have contracts with George and Kimi that go much longer. They are very complicated in terms of options, etc. This is a pressure cooker. Mercedes always has been a pressure cooker. But this is where we stand as a team today.”

Later, at the start of the 2025 season, Wolff reflected: "There was never a plan [to sign him]. We always talked to each other and kept the possibility of communication open. At one point he [Verstappen] said he wanted to stay where he was because that felt right for him. And I said we were going for Kimi [Antonelli] because that felt right for us. We will now see where it will take us."

However, as 2025 progressed, it was clear Red Bull’s performance was on the wane, and Horner was under attack from Jos Verstappen in the media. On top of that, Antonelli was having huge problems in his debut season.

Russell was also awaiting a new contract, and sensationally revealed his team were in talks with Verstappen.

Russell on 26/6/25: "As Mercedes, they want to be back on top, and if you're going to be back on top you need to make sure you've got the best drivers, the best engineers, the best pit crew, and that's what Mercedes are chasing. So, it's only normal that conversations with the likes of Verstappen are ongoing. But from my side, if I'm performing as I'm doing, what have I got to be concerned about? There are two seats in every Formula 1 team."

Wolff added on 28/6/25: "I think when you look at the situation we have with Kimi and George, we have a perfect line-up that we very much enjoy and we believe is the future. But at the same time, there is a four-time world champion who needs to decide what he is going to do in the future, and that is just as a team principal, you need to see where that is going. But I think I give it a very low probability that it's going to happen. You don't know what's going to be in three or five years, that's why you need to look at what is it that should be considered in the long term."

Horner was then sacked by Red Bull on July 9, and the rumours were over again for the time being as Mercedes gave Russell a new contract.

On 23/7/25, Wolff said: “The direction we want to take is to continue with George and Kimi. That's our top priority. Everyone is informed. There will be no big surprises.”

Verstappen then definitively ended the talk on 31/7/26: "Some people just like to stir the pot, some people just like to create drama but for me it's always been quite clear and also for next year. I think it's time to basically stop all the rumours, and for me it's always been quite clear that I was staying anyway."

Yet Wolff and Verstappen’s denials were complicated when the media got hold of them on a boat together in Sardinia.

Verstappen said on 14/8/25: “I had clearly said I was staying; the fact that Toto and I were sitting next to each other on vacation didn’t really help either. I love Sardinia; he loves Sardinia. I arrived and thought: ‘Oh s***.’ But I waved at him, we had lunch together, and the kids played together."

Despite their denials, in February the talk was rekindled when the new series of Drive to Survive was released, and Wolff openly admitted a pursuit.

In the show’s launch on 26/2/26, he was filmed telling the cameras at some point during the 2025 season: "Yes. Certainly, when a four-time world champion appears to be available, that is a conversation I need to have. There is always a chance."

Since then, though, Wolff’s tone on Verstappen has changed to be unrecognisable from the previous years.

Mercedes are now storming the 2026 season with Antonelli clearly the home-made prodigy Wolff never had in Verstappen.

Speaking in March about the Dutchman, he said on 25/3/26: "The astonishing thing is that these silly rumours are already surfacing in March. It's silly enough that you normally have to discuss these things in July. I don't know who brought this up again. We have two drivers with whom we have long-term, multi-year contracts. I couldn't be happier with either of them. Both are delivering top performances, so there's absolutely no reason to even consider a lineup change, or other drivers. I say this with the utmost respect for Max."

On 11/4/2026 he added: “Of course, Max is a human being with emotions, and the most important thing for him is to enjoy racing. I think there’s a good chance he’s not able to do that right now. For F1 as a whole, it would definitely be better not to lose Max. As I’ve already said, our driver structure is clear. We have no intention of changing it.”

A month later, Wolff was pictured having a meeting with Jos, which was dismissed by Horner’s replacement at Red Bull, Laurent Mekies.

21/5/26: “I tell you what, as much as it may sound exciting to see that from the outside, I really don't think there is an intention behind it. If any of these guys wants to have a chat, it's going to be a story anyway. So we speak all the time with Max and with Jos. And it's completely natural that they can have a conversation with Toto. Max was racing in a Mercedes last week in a GT3. So I don't think it's part of a game plan to get a message or another through.”

Wolff then gave his firmest rebuff of Verstappen yet, suggesting for 2027 it’s either Red Bull, McLaren or a sabbatical.

Wolff on 17/6/26: “We don't want to change things and we said that also to George. I think it's a lineup that is good for us. I'm very happy with the two of them."

For the first time in years, Verstappen and Mercedes no longer appear destined to unite. A romance that started in 2014 and rekindled in 2024 has been put on the cooler, and Verstappen may have a year on his sofa watching one of the men to blame - Antonelli.