Why Verstappen doesn’t, but Hamilton still has a chance at the 2026 world championship

After eleven Grands Prix, the summer break is the time to take stock. Looking at the hard numbers, you might think Mercedes is dominating this season. Mercedes has taken 10 of the 11 pole positions, won 8 of the 11 races, and leads both championships by a wide margin. Yet underlying data shows Mercedes isn’t there yet.

At the start of 2026, it was already clear that it wouldn’t be about how good the car was at the beginning of the season, but especially how you develop it throughout the year. With completely new regulations for engines and cars, the learning curve is extremely steep, and teams therefore make major strides during the season. Whoever does that best has the greatest chance of winning the world title.

If you track that development, you’ll see that Mercedes has lost ground over the first half of the season. Yes, they were on pole position 10 out of 11 times, but the gap to the competition clearly shrank. From a lead of over half a second on all rivals, there was nothing left just before the summer break.

The picture is even clearer in race pace. In the first six Grands Prix of this season, Mercedes was the team with the fastest race pace. Although the gap was never as large as over a single lap, Mercedes had the upper hand over the competition on every circuit at the start of the season. That changed in the second part of the first half of the season.

In Spain, a circuit known as the best benchmark for an entire F1 season, it wasn’t Mercedes but Ferrari that had the best race pace with Lewis Hamilton. The gap wasn’t small either, namely a difference of 0.7s per lap.

A week later, Mercedes restored order with the best race pace in Austria, but at Silverstone it was again Ferrari that had the best race pace. In both races, Mercedes’ leading man, Kimi Antonelli, dropped out, but the gap between the best Ferrari and George Russell was repeatedly in Ferrari’s favour. At Silverstone, the difference was only a tenth, though.

After the British GP, Mercedes was once again the fastest in Belgium, but got blown away in Hungary. There, Mercedes was not only slower than customer team McLaren, but also than Ferrari and Red Bull Racing. The Hungaroring is a very specific circuit that has no equal on the rest of the calendar, but the drop-off is clearly visible.

Where Mercedes truly dominated in the first part of the first half of the season, that was no longer the case in the second. On average over the entire first half, Mercedes still had the best race pace, but the decline in part two is significant. The team therefore needs updates to maintain that lead.

Where Mercedes is losing ground, Ferrari is mainly gaining it. In the second part of the first half of the season, their race pace is virtually equal to Mercedes’. Add in the improving qualifying performances and Mercedes’ many technical issues, and you have a championship on your hands.

Lewis Hamilton may therefore be an even bigger threat to Kimi Antonelli’s world title than his teammate George Russell. Due to Mercedes’ many technical problems, Antonelli has only pulled 50 points clear of Hamilton despite the dominance. If, after the summer, he has an equal or perhaps even better car, the title fight could get very exciting indeed.

In 2025 the situation also seemed hopeless for Max Verstappen, but Red Bull turned it around after the summer break and Verstappen came to within 2 points of the world title. In 2026, that seems like a pipe dream. Verstappen is 110 points behind championship leader Antonelli and, above all, has not once been the fastest man on the grid.

In Monaco, Verstappen came close to pole position, but his car stalled right at the start. In Austria, Verstappen could have won with a different strategy, but Antonelli was simply the quickest on track. Over a single lap or in the race, Verstappen never had the fastest car, and the gap was significant.

The average difference in race pace was seven tenths compared to the fastest time. In the second part of the first half of the season, Verstappen and Red Bull gained ground, but so far that doesn’t seem enough. The big problem is mainly that Laurent Mekies has indicated that Red Bull is up against the limit of what it can and wants to do in terms of updates in 2026. The focus will soon shift to 2027, after which the gap this year may not be closed at all.

For a fight for the world title, for the first time in five years, it’s no longer about Max Verstappen. This time, it’s Ferrari that can and must make the title battle exciting. Lewis Hamilton currently holds the best cards for that, but teammate Charles Leclerc is still within striking distance.