Verstappen raises alarm for Mercedes with strong long-run pace as Ferrari in the mix

In the first free practice, it was already clear that Red Bull chose to run both drivers exclusively on the soft tire. The hot, dusty circuit offered little grip and it took a while for the drivers to find their rhythm, after which Verstappen was quickly able to let his RB22 stretch its legs. Although it’s not necessarily an unusual run plan to have the drivers start on softs, it comes on the back of Red Bull struggling on the mediums in Baku.

The soft tire can help find the right setup a bit better and faster, providing a more stable baseline for the rest of the weekend. Being able to start fine-tuning on Friday would be ideal for any team. In the second free practice, Verstappen and Hadjar reported some complaints, including about balance, once again the rear axle posed an issue. Red Bull, however, played it smart by having both drivers run on mediums this time instead of splitting the strategy.

Hadjar did run the soft tire during FP2, but only for shorter stints and in preparation for qualifying, while Verstappen got to work on a solid long run. It’s been a while since Verstappen has completed such an extended long run, but it certainly seems like a good sign. As usual, this data is not a blueprint, nor does it establish the field hierarchy for Sunday, but consistency can send positive signals. That appears to be the case for Red Bull.

Despite a significantly longer stint, Verstappen is only 0.212 seconds off Antonelli’s long run on the soft tire. The Italian was almost five tenths faster on the medium tire, but again, that stint was very short and doesn’t provide a solid comparison. Verstappen is even quicker than Russell - on average about four tenths per lap - while their stint lengths were roughly the same. That’s positive for Red Bull and less positive for Mercedes.

The caveat, of course, is that Mercedes was also working on its upgrade package, and finding speed with a revised car takes some time. Either way, there’s work to do for the Silver Arrows, at least in the fight with Verstappen. Hadjar is still trailing compared to the four-time world champion. On the same compound, he is on average 0.714s slower despite his shorter run.

Leclerc and Antonelli are almost inseparable on the soft tire. The Ferrari driver records an average lap of 1:44.582, making him just 0.014 seconds faster than the Italian. Hamilton is less able to match his teammate’s pace: with an average of 1:45.115, he is 0.533 seconds per lap slower than Leclerc. Ferrari, with Leclerc, shows a higher average pace than Red Bull.

The Monegasque is 0.226 seconds per lap faster than Verstappen, while Hamilton actually gives up 0.307 seconds to the Dutchman. Moreover, Verstappen is on mediums and keeps his stint going longer than both Ferrari drivers on softs. The small gap to Leclerc is therefore encouraging for Red Bull, although the lack of data on fuel load and tire age prevents a direct comparison of their pace.

What stands out at McLaren are the relatively consistent lap times. After his opening lap, Piastri keeps lapping around 1:45 and finishes his stint with an average of 1:45.110. Norris, with a 1:44.989 average, is 0.121 seconds quicker than his teammate. The Brit also ends his run with three consecutive laps under 1:45. McLaren sits behind Verstappen with both drivers. Norris is on average 0.181 seconds slower, and Piastri gives up 0.302 seconds, despite their softer tires and shorter runs. Meanwhile, Hadjar trails both McLarens and both Ferraris. The strong impression Red Bull makes in this comparison therefore comes mainly from Verstappen.