Race pace simulations reveal shocking gap for Hamilton and Ferrari to Mercedes

Russell and Kimi Antonelli completed their long runs on the medium tyres while most of their main rivals used the soft compound. The Mercedes pair therefore had a different tyre strategy to drivers such as Hamilton, Leclerc and Max Verstappen. The session also featured qualifying simulations early on before the teams switched their attention towards race preparation. Arvid Lindblad's crash brought out a red flag and interrupted the running before the teams could complete their planned programmes.

As always with FP2 race simulations, the data needs to be treated with some caution. Fuel loads, engine modes, tyre age and battery deployment are all unknown and can have a significant impact on the lap times. Baku is particularly difficult to assess because of its long main straight and the importance of managing energy deployment throughout the lap. Even so, Russell's average of 1:47.960 stands out. Antonelli was next among the Mercedes drivers at 1:48.520, meaning he was 0.560 seconds behind his team-mate on average.

The Ferrari figures are considerably more concerning. Leclerc recorded an average of 1:48.972 while Hamilton was only marginally quicker at 1:48.968. That puts both Ferrari drivers just over one second per lap away from Russell's average. The gap is even more notable given that Leclerc and Hamilton were running the soft tyres while Russell completed his long run on the mediums. It is impossible to quantify exactly how much of an advantage the softer compound provided, but the data nevertheless points towards Mercedes having a substantial advantage in race pace.

Max Verstappen was much closer to Russell than either Ferrari driver. The Red Bull driver posted an average of 1:48.119 which left him just 0.159 seconds off Russell's benchmark. However, Verstappen completed his long run on the soft compound while Russell was on the mediums, making the comparison less straightforward. Still, Red Bull can take encouragement from the fact that Verstappen was comfortably ahead of both Ferrari drivers and also quicker than the McLaren pair in the available data.

The McLarens were also behind Mercedes, with Oscar Piastri averaging 1:48.345 and Lando Norris 1:48.655. That leaves Piastri 0.385 seconds behind Russell while Norris was 0.695 seconds off the Mercedes driver's pace. Isack Hadjar was further back with an average of 1:49.008, although his shorter run makes his figures more difficult to compare directly with the others.

For Ferrari in particular, there is plenty of work to do overnight. The gap to Russell in the race simulations was significant and both Leclerc and Hamilton will need to find considerably more pace if they are to challenge Mercedes over a full stint. With traction out of the slow corners and straight-line performance both crucial around Baku, the teams still have several areas to fine-tune before qualifying.