This is how Kimi Antonelli could become the youngest F1 world champion of all time in Austin

Photo: Race Pictures
Tim Kraaij is Editor-in-Chief of GPblog.com and a Formula 1 analyst. With permanent FIA accreditation and direct access to the paddock, he delivers in-depth, data-driven analysis and insight into key developments within the sport.
Kimi Antonelli could clinch the 2026 title in Austin. The Italian could become the youngest-ever Formula 1 world champion at the United States Grand Prix, but there are still a few hurdles to clear for that to happen.
Antonelli can become world champion
After the Singapore Grand Prix, six Grands Prix are officially still scheduled to take place in 2026. Qatar and Abu Dhabi are currently included on the F1 calendar, with Imola as a possible replacement. However, F1 has not yet made a decision on that, so we will work with the official number of six remaining races.
In that scenario, 150 points are still up for grabs, meaning Antonelli, who holds a 102-point lead over closest rival George Russell in Singapore, has not yet been crowned world champion. Austin presents the first opportunity to do so, but Antonelli will need things to go his way.
First of all, Antonelli must win himself. He needs to gain 23 points on Russell in Texas, and he can only do that by taking victory at the Circuit of the Americas. If Antonelli fails to do so, he will have to wait until Mexico to try and clinch the title. Given Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen's current form, the Dutchman in particular coulddisrupt the Italian's ambitions.
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Even if Antonelli wins, Russell must score no more than two points. In that scenario, Antonelli gains 23 points on Russell, making the gap large enough for the world title. If Russell finishes higher than ninth, the world title will not be decided until Mexico.
This is how Antonelli becomes world champion in Austin
Lewis Hamilton is also still mathematically in contention for the world title, so the Briton must be taken into account as well. Hamilton may not finish higher than P5; otherwise Antonelli's title celebrations will have to wait. Antonelli needs to gain 11 points on Hamilton to become world champion.
Max Verstappen is also still mathematically in contention for the title. As GPblog calculated earlier, however, that chance is particularly small. If Antonelli wins in Austin, Verstappen is eliminated from the title race altogether. Verstappen can therefore only delay the title celebrations by one week by winning himself, and even then his chances of taking the title remain negligible.
| Austin finish | Driver | Points before Austin | Austin points | New championship standings | Gap to Antonelli |
| P1 | Kimi Antonelli | 340 | +25 | 365 | — |
| P2 | Max Verstappen | 221 | +18 | 239 | 126 |
| P5 | Lewis Hamilton | 229 | +10 | 239 | 126 |
| P9 | George Russell | 238 | +2 | 240 | 125 |
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