Tim Kraaij is Editor-in-Chief of GPblog.com and a Formula 1 analyst. With permanent FIA accreditation and direct access to the paddock, he delivers in-depth, data-driven analysis and insight into key developments within the sport.
Alexander Albon comes under increasing pressure
Alexander Albon outbraked himself on his final Q1 run and failed to advance. Meanwhile, Carlos Sainz made it through to the final part of qualifying fairly comfortably. It’s not the first time Albon has been beaten by Sainz. After Malaysia, the qualifying head-to-head stands at 12-4 in Sainz’s favor. On average, Sainz has been about 0.25s faster per qualifying session than Albon.
Albon was brought to Williams as the team leader. He was meant to make people forget George Russell and has guided Williams for a long time. Since Carlos Sainz’s arrival, however, Albon has been pushed into the background, and he will need to make quick progress to avoid being replaced in the long run.
| GP | Albon pos | Sainz pos | Fastest | Gap |
| Australia | 15 | n/a (no time) | Albon (default) | — |
| China | 18 | 17 | Sainz | 0.455s |
| Japan | 17 | 16 | Sainz | 0.161s |
| Miami | 15 | 13 | Sainz | 0.180s |
| Canada | 18 | 15 | Sainz | 0.578s |
| Monaco | 11 | 12 | Albon | 0.028s |
| Barcelona | 18 | 16 | Sainz | 0.543s |
| Austria | 18 | 17 | Sainz | 0.257s |
| Great Britain | 16 | 15 | Sainz | 0.076s |
| Belgium | 17 | 15 | Sainz | 0.343s |
| Hungary | 19 | 18 | Sainz | 0.037s |
| Netherlands | 16 | 17 | Albon | 0.392s |
| Monza | 18 | 15 | Sainz | 0.903s |
| Madrid | 16 | 17 | Albon | 0.005s |
| Azerbaijan | 13 | 9 | Sainz | 0.435s |
| Bahrain | 20 | 13 | Sainz | 0.949s |
Aston Martin can peak
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Aston Martin is no longer the worst team. While Cadillac still can’t get out of Q1, Aston Martin has now even managed to get both cars through to Q2. That doesn’t mean Aston Martin is where it wants to be yet, but it does mark a significant step forward.
This works on specific circuits. Just like at Zandvoort, the Sepang International Circuit lends itself more to the strengths of the Aston Martin chassis. That said, the track does feature several long straights where Honda power would have hurt the team more in the past.
Russell put back in his place by Antonelli
After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, George Russell might have hoped to make the title fight exciting again. Following his Q1 slip-up in Baku qualifying, Kimi Antonelli quickly restored order. Even a mistake in Q2 didn’t unsettle Antonelli, and with just one run in Q3 he was two tenths faster than Russell, who needed two runs.
Verstappen and Red Bull on course for first win
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Ahead of the Malaysian race weekend, Max Verstappen said he wanted to win at least one more Grand Prix in 2026. Nobody expected that could already happen at Sepang. Red Bull had been on an upward trend for months, but no one, not even Verstappen himself, saw the first pole position of the season coming.
With pole position in hand, this is logically Verstappen’s best chance for a win. With Lewis Hamilton starting P2, however, it won’t be easy. Ferrari showed excellent race pace on Friday in the long runs and will do everything to prevent Verstappen from taking his first victory of the season.
Mercedes’ monster update disappoints
Mercedes hadn’t brought an update for months, so expectations were high for the big upgrade package taken to Malaysia. At Mercedes they will have hoped for much more. Kimi Antonelli’s qualifying wasn’t perfect, but George Russell’s session ran smoothly and still ended only in eighth place. The seven-tenths gap to Verstappen is especially worrying for Mercedes.
For a team that hasn’t been strong in car development in the current generation, some alarm bells will be ringing that the new upgrade package doesn’t seem to be working. It’s only one circuit, but things will have to improve in Singapore to avoid giving the competition even more hope.
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